<div dir="ltr">Caros colegas e amigos. Aqui vão os meus ajustes para a cidade de São Paulo.<div>Novamente o melhor modelo foi a Weibull</div><div><br></div><div>O ajuste na cauda da distribuição:</div><div><img src="cid:ii_kgzrayke0" alt="image.png" width="472" height="283"><br></div><div><br></div><div>A comparação modelo x observação x (média móvel de 7 dias)</div><div><div><img src="cid:ii_kgzrgjf61" alt="image.png" width="472" height="382"><br></div></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>Predições</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="880" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:660pt">
<colgroup><col width="207" style="width:155pt">
<col width="119" style="width:89pt">
<col width="285" style="width:214pt">
<col width="107" style="width:80pt">
<col width="162" style="width:122pt">
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="31" style="height:23.25pt">
<td height="31" class="gmail-xl64" width="207" style="height:23.25pt;width:155pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px">Relevant
events</td>
<td class="gmail-xl65" width="119" style="border-left:none;width:89pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">Data</td>
<td class="gmail-xl66" width="285" style="width:214pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">Data Type</td>
<td class="gmail-xl67" width="107" style="width:80pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-width:1pt 0.5pt 1pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">Daily</td>
<td class="gmail-xl68" width="162" style="border-left:none;width:122pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">Accumulated</td>
</tr>
<tr height="31" style="height:23.25pt">
<td rowspan="6" height="181" class="gmail-xl69" width="207" style="height:135.75pt;width:155pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px">Estimated Peaks</td>
<td rowspan="3" class="gmail-xl89" style="color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">06/06/20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl70" style="color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Observed</td>
<td class="gmail-xl71" style="color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">96</td>
<td class="gmail-xl72" style="border-left:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">4901</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td height="30" class="gmail-xl74" style="height:22.5pt;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Predicted</td>
<td class="gmail-xl75" style="color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-width:0.5pt 0.5pt 0.5pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">94</td>
<td class="gmail-xl76" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">4927</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td height="30" class="gmail-xl74" style="height:22.5pt;border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Freq.
Estimated</td>
<td colspan="2" class="gmail-xl77" style="border-width:0.5pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black windowtext windowtext;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">33,62%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="90" class="gmail-xl91" style="height:67.5pt;border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">23/06/20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl79" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Observed</td>
<td class="gmail-xl80" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">179</td>
<td class="gmail-xl81" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">6583</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td height="30" class="gmail-xl79" style="height:22.5pt;border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Predicted</td>
<td class="gmail-xl80" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">92</td>
<td class="gmail-xl81" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">6516</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td height="30" class="gmail-xl79" style="height:22.5pt;border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Freq.
Estimated</td>
<td colspan="2" class="gmail-xl80" style="border-width:0.5pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black windowtext windowtext;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">44.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="90" class="gmail-xl73" width="207" style="height:67.5pt;border-top:none;width:155pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px">Last day observed for this study</td>
<td rowspan="3" class="gmail-xl92" style="border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">31/10/20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl74" style="border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Observed</td>
<td class="gmail-xl75" style="border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">16</td>
<td class="gmail-xl76" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">13597</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td height="30" class="gmail-xl74" style="height:22.5pt;border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Predicted</td>
<td class="gmail-xl75" style="border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl76" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">13606</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td height="30" class="gmail-xl74" style="height:22.5pt;border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Freq.
Estimated</td>
<td colspan="2" class="gmail-xl77" style="border-width:0.5pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black windowtext windowtext;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">93,67%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td rowspan="2" height="60" class="gmail-xl73" width="207" style="height:45pt;border-top:none;width:155pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px">End of 2020</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl93" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">31/12/20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl79" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Predicted</td>
<td class="gmail-xl80" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">6</td>
<td class="gmail-xl81" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">14300</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td height="30" class="gmail-xl79" style="height:22.5pt;border-top:none;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Freq.
Estimated</td>
<td colspan="2" class="gmail-xl82" style="border-width:0.5pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black windowtext windowtext;color:rgb(68,114,196);font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">98,50%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="30" style="height:22.5pt">
<td rowspan="2" height="61" class="gmail-xl84" width="207" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;height:45.75pt;border-top:none;width:155pt;color:rgb(192,0,0);font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom">Half of next year - 2021</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl92" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;white-space:nowrap">31/06/2021</td>
<td class="gmail-xl74" style="border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:none;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Predicted</td>
<td class="gmail-xl75" style="border-top:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">0</td>
<td class="gmail-xl76" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">14515</td>
</tr>
<tr height="31" style="height:23.25pt">
<td height="31" class="gmail-xl86" style="height:23.25pt;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-weight:700;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:none;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Freq. Estimated</td>
<td colspan="2" class="gmail-xl87" style="border-width:0.5pt 1pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black windowtext windowtext;color:black;font-size:14pt;font-family:"Arial Black",sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">99,99%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div></div>