<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Caros,</div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br class=""></div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Gostaríamos de convidar a todos para o próximo seminário conjunto UFSCar/ICMC-USP, que ocorrerá no dia <b class="">11<span class="">/06</span></b>, <b class="">às 14h</b>. Seguem informações abaixo. <b class="">Devido a problemas de invasões que têm ocorrido em alguns eventos online, o link do evento será divulgado apenas no dia [</b><b class=""><a href="http://www.pipges.ufscar.br/seminarios/11-06-2021-bayesian-inference-for-competing-risks-and-multi-state-survival-models-speaker-carmen-armero-universitat-de-valencia" class="">AQUI</a>].</b></div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br class=""></div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sintam-se à vontade para divulgar (arquivo em anexo) entre eventuais interessados.</div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br class=""></div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Saudações,</div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Michel</div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br class=""></div><div class="" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Scheduled for:</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Jun 11, 2021, at 2:00 pm</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">(GMT-03:00) Brasilia Standard Time - Sao Paulo</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""> </div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Streaming:</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Google Meet</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Speaker:</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Carmen Armero (Universitat de València)</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Title:</b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Bayesian inference for competing risks and multi-state survival models</span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""> </span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Abstract: </b></span></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Survival analysis focus on data that record times from a defined starting point to the occurrence of a particular event or endpoint of interest. Competing risk models are survival models that include more than one event of interest where the occurrence of one event rules out the occurrence of all the others. Multi-state models are more general survival models that account for survival times involved in the pathways associated to the sequential occurrence of many events of interest. </span>We discuss Bayesian analysis of such models in the context of medical research. We begin by working with a basic competing risks model in which the time to a new hip fracture or to death is modelled for patients aged 65 or older who have already had a first hip fracture, then we introduce a competing risks model for taking into account non-ignorable missing data in a longitudinal analysis of chronic kidney disease in children, and conclude with a discussion of the so-called illness and death multi-state models by returning to the hip fracture study.</div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class=""></span><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Bio:</b></div><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 13.9776px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial;" class=""><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">Carmen Armero is Professor of Statistics and Operations Research at the Universitat de València (Spain), andBiomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS) Associate. Her research has always been focused on BayesianInference, first on queueing systems and later on Bayesian hierarchical models in biomedical environments, mainlyin the areas of survival and longitudinal models. She has published papers in prestigious international journalssuch as Statistics in Medicine, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Queueing Systems, Health Economics,Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Biometrical Journal, among others. She is Director ofthe València Bayesian Research group, VABAR (</span><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://vabar.es&sa=D&source=calendar&ust=1617552097345000&usg=AOvVaw0tfdKD8_nb3_orlp4lzsKp" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttp://vabar.es%26sa%3DD%26source%3Dcalendar%26ust%3D1617552097345000%26usg%3DAOvVaw0tfdKD8_nb3_orlp4lzsKp&source=gmail&ust=1617210250156000&usg=AFQjCNEe5PS20GP_kKapj3krq3UpWLR3qg" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; outline: none; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(32, 92, 144) !important; border-bottom: none !important;" class="">vabar.es</a><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">), of the València-VABAR node of the Biostatnet network(</span><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://biostatnet.com/en/&sa=D&source=calendar&ust=1617552097345000&usg=AOvVaw08T3yonRuxCnplnOV4V5fi" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttp://biostatnet.com/en/%26sa%3DD%26source%3Dcalendar%26ust%3D1617552097345000%26usg%3DAOvVaw08T3yonRuxCnplnOV4V5fi&source=gmail&ust=1617210250156000&usg=AFQjCNHWeOdWu5NM3Ry0-e7KlqoSCZ12Ug" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline; outline: none; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(32, 92, 144) !important; border-bottom: none !important;" class="">biostatnet.com/en/</a><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: none; vertical-align: baseline;" class="">), and of the València International Bayesian Analysis Summer School (VIBASS).</span></div></div><div class="">
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