<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><br></div>Caros redistas,</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">É com prazer que eu lhes convido para a palestra desta semana do ciclo de seminários da Escola de Matemática Aplicada (EMAp) da FGV, a ser proferida pelo professor Hedibert Lopes. Ela acontece nesta quinta-feira, às 16h. (informações abaixo).</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">Espero vocês lá!</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">Cordialmente,</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">Luiz<br>





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<b><span style="font-size:12.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#2f5597">DYNAMIC ORDERING LEARNING IN MULTIVARIATE FORECASTING
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<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">In many fields where the main goal is to produce sequential forecasts for decision making problems, the good understanding of the contemporaneous relations among different
 series is crucial for the estimation of the covariance matrix. In recent years, the modified Cholesky decomposition appeared as a popular approach to covariance matrix estimation. However, its main drawback relies on the imposition of the series ordering structure.
 In this work, we propose a highly flexible and fast method to deal with the problem of ordering uncertainty in a dynamic fashion with the use of Dynamic Order Probabilities. We apply the proposed method in two different forecasting contexts. The first is a
 dynamic portfolio allocation problem, where the investor is able to learn the contemporaneous relationships among different currencies improving final decisions and economic performance. The second is a macroeconomic application, where the econometrician can
 adapt sequentially to new economic environments, switching the contemporaneous relations among macroeconomic variables over time.</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#4785d1"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<span style="color:#595959">Paper: <a href="https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Farxiv.org%2Fabs%2F2101.04164&data=04%7C01%7Cluiz.fagundes%40fgv.br%7Ccfaa8c601aa54c84c90108d934a083f3%7C79f6b639ab1242808077bdbeef869b33%7C0%7C0%7C637598686289503287%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C1000&sdata=ZyMv8ln5Bv6FUM9FFdRDrbYOnarUjsA5IikMG8w5B7g%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank"><span style="color:#595959;text-decoration:none">https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.04164</span></a><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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^{<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">Texto informado pelo autor</span>}^{<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#3b3838">.
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<b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">Quando e Onde:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">24 de Junho de 2021, às
<b>16h</b><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">Via Zoom<u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">Registre-se com antecedência para este seminário:
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<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">Após o registro, você receberá um e-mail de confirmação contendo informações sobre conexão no seminário.</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1f4e79">Palestrante:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">Hedibert Freitas Lopes -</span></b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959"> possui Ph.D.</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">
</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">em Statistics and Decision Sciences pelo Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, da Duke University, em 2000; e seu MSc. em Estatística pelo Instituto
 de Matemática da UFRJ em 1994. Antes de se juntar ao Insper, em 2013, atuou por 10 anos na Universidade de Chicago, como Assistant e Associate Professor of Econometrics and Statistics da Booth School of Business. Desenvolve pesquisas em Estatística Bayesiana,
 Análise Fatorial, Métodos Computacionais, Séries Temporais e Modelos Dinâmicos, Volatilidade Estocástica Multivariada, Teoria do Valor Extremo, Filtros de Partículas, Estatística Espacial, Micro-econometria e Macro-econometria. Recentemente tem promovido a
 ciência de dados, sendo o coordenador do Centro de Estatística, Ciência de Dados e Decisão.  Tem mais de 70 artigos científicos publicados nas mais prestigiadas revistas científicas do mundo, como o Journal of the American Statistical Association e o American
 Economic Review.  Parecerista de mais de 30 revistas internacionais, ministrou 200 palestras e 25 minicursos e tutoriais na última década.</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">Áreas de Pesquisa:</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1f497d">
</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">Análise Fatorial, Estatística Bayesiana, Estatística Espacial, Filtros de Partículas, Métodos Computacionais, Séries Temporais e Modelos Dinâmicos, Teoria do
 Valor Extremo, Volatilidade Estocástica Multivariada.</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1f497d"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
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</div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr" style="color:rgb(80,0,80)"><div dir="ltr">Luiz Max Fagundes de Carvalho</div><div dir="ltr">Lecturer, School of Applied Mathematics (EMAp), Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Brazil.</div><div dir="ltr">Praia de Botafogo, 190, Sala 511, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22250-900.</div><div dir="ltr">Brazil</div></div></div></div></div></div></div>