<div dir="ltr"><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Prezados colegas, <span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%"> <span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Devido à pandemia, estamos realizando de forma virtual as atividades do
COLMEA, colóquio interinstitucional que congrega vários grupos do Rio de
Janeiro.<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Nosso próximo encontro será no dia 22 de julho (quinta-feira) com início
às 14 horas, utilizando o software Google Meet. <span> </span>Na ocasião teremos as palestras de </span><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%;color:black">José Heleno Faro (Insper)
e Marcelo Cunha Medeiros (PUC-Rio) abordando temas de amplo interesse na nossa
comunidade. <span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%;color:black">Todos são muito bem-vindos. O acesso ao encontro se
dará através do link abaixo: https://</span><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%"> </span><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%;color:black"><a href="http://meet.google.com/hjr-wkvz-tyi" target="_blank">meet.google.com/hjr-wkvz-tyi</a><span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Para <span style="color:black">participar por telefone, disque +1
316-778-8055 e digite este PIN: 534 154 505#. Pode-se também acessar utilizando
o código QR que consta no cartaz. <span></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Títulos e resumos no final da mensagem. Mais informações sobre o nosso
colóquio COLMEA, inclusive sobre todos os encontros anteriores podem ser
encontradas através da homepage </span><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%"><a href="http://www.im.ufrj.br/~coloquiomea/" target="_blank"><span style="color:blue">http://www.im.ufrj.br/~coloquiomea/</span></a></span><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%"> <span style="color:black"><span></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Agradecemos a divulgação.<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Atenciosamente, <span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">O comitê
organizador: <span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">Americo
Cunha (UERJ) <span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">Augusto Q.
Teixeira (IMPA)<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">Evaldo M. F.
Curado (CBPF)<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">Leandro P.
R. Pimentel (UFRJ)<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">Maria
Eulalia Vares (UFRJ)<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">Nuno
Crokidakis (UFF)<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US">Simon Griffiths (PUC-Rio)<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US">===============<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US">Resumos:<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black" lang="EN-US">Dynamically consistent objective and subjective rationality</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black" lang="EN-US"><br>
José Heleno Faro (Insper)<br>
<br>
A group of experts, for instance climate scientists, is to choose among two
policies f and g. Consider the following decision rule. If all experts agree
that the expected utility of f is higher than the expected utility of g, the
unanimity rule applies, and f is chosen. Otherwise, the precautionary principle
is implemented and the policy yielding the highest minimal expected utility is
chosen. This decision rule may lead to time inconsistencies when an
intermediate period of partial resolution of uncertainty is added. We show how
to coherently reassess the initial set of experts' beliefs so that choices
become dynamically consistent: new beliefs should be added until one obtains
the smallest ``rectangular set'' that contains the original one. Our analysis
offers a novel behavioral characterization of rectangularity and a prescriptive
way to aggregate opinions in order to avoid sure regret.</span><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"><span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"> <span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US">Counterfactual
analysis with artificial controls: inference, high dimensions and
nonstationarity </span></b><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"><br>
Marcelo Cunha Medeiros (PUC-Rio) <br>
<br>
Recently, there has been growing interest in developing statistical tools to
conduct counterfactual analysis with aggregate data when a single ``treated''
unit suffers an intervention, such as a policy change, and there is no obvious
control group. Usually, the proposed methods are based on the construction of
an artificial counterfactual from a pool of ``untreated'' peers, organized in a
panel data structure. In this paper, we consider a general framework for
counterfactual analysis for high-dimensional, nonstationary data with either
deterministic and/or stochastic trends, which nests well-established methods,
such as the synthetic control. We propose a resampling procedure to test
intervention effects that does not rely on postintervention asymptotics and
that can be used even if there is only a single observation after the
intervention. A simulation study is provided as well as an empirical
application.</span><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"><span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt" lang="EN-US"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%" lang="EN-US"><span> </span></span></p>
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