<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><table class="gmail-x_MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="540" style="font-variant-numeric:inherit;font-variant-east-asian:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:15px;line-height:inherit;color:rgb(32,31,30);width:405pt"><tbody><tr style="height:22.5pt"><td style="padding:0cm;height:22.5pt"><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:11.5pt;line-height:inherit;font-family:Verdana,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(51,51,51)">A Bayesian Network approach to modelling food security over time</span></b></p><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b style="font-size:11pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:11.5pt;line-height:inherit;font-family:Verdana,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(51,51,51)">Speaker:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font:inherit;color:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;vertical-align:baseline"> <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/thaisf/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(5,99,193)">Thais Fonseca</a></span></p><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:11.5pt;line-height:inherit;font-family:Verdana,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(51,51,51)">University:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:12pt;line-height:inherit;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit"> <a href="https://ufrj.br/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(5,99,193)">Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro - UFRJ</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit"><a href="https://web.mit.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(5,99,193)"></a></span><span style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:12pt;line-height:inherit;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit"></span></p><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit"> </span></p><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;text-align:justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit">Chronic food insecurity represents one of the main obstacles to economical and social development in many countries. Very often, Policymakers struggle to improve the food security scenario due to the low budget for investment.  In ever-larger dynamic systems, such as the food system, it is increasingly difficult for decision-makers to effectively account for all the variables within the system that may influence the outcomes of interest under enactments of various candidate policies. For instance, the food system is usually influenced by food prices, availability, income, unemployment and demographic factors to cite a few. Each of the influencing variables is likely to be dynamic sub-systems with expert domains supported by sophisticated probabilistic models. This work integrates historical <span class="gmail-mark52a6xa4kj" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit">data</span> and expert knowledge within the framework of graphical models to allow for modelling and predicting food security over time. The proposed tool aims to provide a mechanism to highlight the most relevant factors for the improvement of the system, allowing Policymakers to make the optimal decision in the presence of uncertainty and cost restrictions. The model is based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks which are computational efficient providing fast risk evaluation for several competing policies. An application to food security in the UK is presented at the household level which combines both economical, meteorological and epidemiological <span class="gmail-mark52a6xa4kj" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit">data</span> and expert information in a comprehensive model for malnutrition and school attainment. Finally, an extension to model food security in Brazil using the PNAD <span class="gmail-mark52a6xa4kj" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit">data</span> and dynamical Bayesian Networks for multivariate counts is presented.</span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:22.5pt"><td style="padding:0cm;height:22.5pt"><br>September 23, 2021, 12pm-1:20PM de São Paulo, Brasil<br>Zoom link: <a href="https://zoom.us/j/95660781314">https://zoom.us/j/95660781314</a><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;line-height:15.4px"><span style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:10.5pt;line-height:14.7px;font-family:Verdana,sans-serif;vertical-align:baseline;color:black"></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:114.1pt"><td style="padding:0cm;height:114.1pt"><table class="gmail-x_MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="430" style="font:inherit;width:322.7pt"><tbody><tr style="height:29.1pt"><td width="39" style="width:28.95pt;padding:0cm;height:29.1pt"><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;line-height:15.4px"><span style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit"></span><span style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-variant:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-size:12pt;line-height:16.8px;font-family:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:inherit"></span></p></td><td width="392" style="width:293.7pt;padding:0cm;height:29.1pt"><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;line-height:15.4px"></p></td></tr><tr style="height:29.1pt"><td style="padding:0cm;height:29.1pt"><p class="gmail-x_MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;line-height:15.4px"><br></p></td><td style="padding:0cm;height:29.1pt"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div>