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<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Data Science -<span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space">  </span>Academic Seminar - INSPER</p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)">November 04, 2021, 12pm de São Paulo, Brasil (UTC/GMT -03:00)</p><p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></p><p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><a href="https://zoom.us/j/95660781314">https://zoom.us/j/95660781314</a><br></p><p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Title: Bayesian tree models with targeted smoothing for causal inference</p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Speaker: Jared Murray, University of Texas at Austin</p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>Abstract:<span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>Bayesian tree models like Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and Bayesian causal forests (BCF) are popular<span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>and effective methods for inferring heterogeneous causal effects. However, their function estimates are necessarily<span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>discontinuous and "rough" in their arguments, a significant disadvantage in applications involving continuous<span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>treatments or effect moderators thought to have smoothly evolving relationships with treatment efficacy. Here we<span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>extend Bayesian tree models with "targeted smoothing" to allow for (possibly) irregularly spaced continuous treatment<span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>variables or moderators while maintaining computational efficiency through the use of carefully constructed basis expansions.</p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)">This talk will draw on the following papers:</p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span>P. Richard Hahn. Jared S. Murray. Carlos M. Carvalho. "Bayesian Regression Tree Models for Causal Inference: Regularization, Confounding, and Heterogeneous Effects (with Discussion)." Bayesian Anal. 15 (3) 965 - 1056, September 2020. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1214/19-BA1195">https://doi.org/10.1214/19-BA1195</a></p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Jennifer E. Starling. Jared S. Murray. Carlos M. Carvalho. Radek K. Bukowski. James G. Scott. "BART with targeted smoothing: An analysis of patient-specific stillbirth risk." Ann. Appl. Stat. 14 (1) 28 - 50, March 2020. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1214/19-AOAS1268">https://doi.org/10.1214/19-AOAS1268</a></p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p1" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Spencer Woody, CM Carvalho, PR Hahn, JS Murray "Estimating heterogeneous effects of continuous exposures using Bayesian tree ensembles: revisiting the impact of abortion rates on crime" <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.09845">https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.09845</a></p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><span class="gmail-Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p>
<p class="gmail-p2" style="margin:0px;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-stretch:normal;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0);min-height:14px"><br></p></div>