<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><br><br><div dir="ltr"><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Probability Webinar - IM-UFRJ </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%"> </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Dear colleagues,
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Our next
online seminar will be held on Monday, <b>November
22, </b> from <b>3 p.m. to 4 p.m</b>.
(Rio de Janeiro local time)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">The Zoom link for the seminar is </span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><a href="https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83698166702?pwd=ejFxYmh3dVk5b3J3SG0wMWxEVnVrUT09" style="color:blue" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Arial,"sans-serif";color:rgb(17,85,204);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83698166702?pwd=ejFxYmh3dVk5b3J3SG0wMWxEVnVrUT09</span></a><span lang="EN-US"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><br></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Speaker: </span><b><span lang="EN-US">Antonio Galves (IME-USP
and NeuroMat)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%"></span></b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Title:
</span><b><span lang="EN-US">Fast Consensus and Metastability
in a Highly Polarized Social Network</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Abstract:
Discrepancy between the results of electoral intentions carried out a few days
before the actual voting and the electoral poll results during the first round
of the 2018 presidential elections in Brazil was striking. At the time, it was
conjectured that this discrepancy was the result of social-media campaigning
days before the elections. The question remains: is social-media campaigning
enough to change the voting intention of a significant portion of voters? To
provide an answer to this question was the initial motivation for this work.<br>
<br>
The model we consider is a system with a large number of interacting marked
point processes with memory of variable length. Each point process indicates
the successive times in which a social actor expresses a
"favorable'' (+1) or "contrary'' (-1) opinion on a
certain subject. The social pressure on an actor determines the
orientation and the rate at which he expresses opinions. When an actor
expresses their opinion, social pressure on them is reset to 0, and
simultaneously social pressure on the other actors is changed by one unit in
the direction of the opinion that was just expressed.<br>
<br>
The network has a polarization coefficient that indicates the tendency of
social actors to express an opinion in the same direction of the social
pressure exerted on them.<br>
<br>
We show that when the polarization coefficient diverges consensus is reached
almost instantaneously. Moreover, in a highly polarized network, consensus has
a metastable behavior and changes its direction after a long and unpredictable
random time.<br>
<br>
This is a joint work and a joint talk with Kádmo de Souza Laxa.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">All the talks
are held in English. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">The videos of
the online seminars are available:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">2020 - <a href="http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=2885" target="_blank">http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=2885</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">2021-1 -
<a href="http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3027" target="_blank">http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3027</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">For the second semester, a few days after each meeting
the video should be available at <a href="http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3178" target="_blank">http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3178</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Thanks for circulating this information. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:115%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:115%">Sincerely, <br>
Organizers: Guilherme Ost and Maria Eulalia Vares</span></p></div><div id="m_6207984649845206012DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br> <table style="border-top:1px solid #d3d4de">
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<td style="width:470px;padding-top:17px;color:#41424e;font-size:13px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;line-height:18px">Livre de vírus. <a href="https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail" style="color:#4453ea" target="_blank">www.avast.com</a>. </td>
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