<div dir="ltr">Caros colegas<div>Andei no início da pandemia perturbando vocês com tentativa de predições do número de mortes com covid19. Encontrei alguns colegas que se dedicaram a este problema.  Assim gostaria de apresentar o resultado desse trabalho que culminou com um modelo para Dengue. Segue a lista dos artigos. O primeiro da lista não é aberto então estou anexando uma cópia.</div><div>Encontrar colegas como Luiz Nakamura, Paulo Rodrigues e principalmente o amigo de Campo Grande, Erlandson Saraiva, foi uma dádiva. </div><div><br></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">SARAIVA, EF; SAUER, L; <span style="text-transform:uppercase;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Pereira</span><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">, CAB<b>.</b></span> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">A hierarchical Bayesian approach for modeling the

evolution of the 7-day moving average of the number of deaths by COVID-19. </span><b><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">J OF APPLIED STATISTICS</span></i></b><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)"> 49, pp

1-15, 2022.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color:rgb(91,155,213)"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2022.2070136" style="color:rgb(5,99,193)"><span lang="PT-BR" style="color:rgb(91,155,213)">https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2022.2070136</span></a></span><span style="color:rgb(91,155,213)"></span></b></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">SARAIVA, EF; VIGAS, VP; FLESCH, MV; GANNON, M; <span style="text-transform:uppercase;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Pereira</span><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">, CA</span>. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">Modeling Overdispersed Dengue Data via

Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression Model: A Case Study in the City of Campo

Grande, MS, Brazil. <b><i><span style="font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-caps:small-caps">Entropy</span></i></b></span><i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-caps:small-caps;color:rgb(50,108,153)">, </span></i><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">24, 1256, 2022.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color:rgb(91,155,213)"><a href="https://doi.org/">https://doi.org/</a> 10.3390/e24091256</span></b><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)"></span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;vertical-align:baseline;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153);text-transform:uppercase;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Pereira,</span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153);border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> CAB</span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">; NAKAMURA, LR; RODRIGUES, PC. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">NAIVE STATISTICAL ANALYSES FOR COVID-19:

APPLICATION TO DATA FROM BRAZIL AND ITALY. <b><i>Brazilian J of Biometrics</i></b>

39(158-176), 2021.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align:baseline;margin:0in 0in 8pt;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="color:rgb(91,155,213)"><a href="https://doi.org/10.28951/rbb.v39i1.515" style="color:rgb(5,99,193)"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(91,155,213);text-decoration-line:none">https://doi.org/10.28951/rbb.v39i1.515</span></a></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(91,155,213)"></span></b></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;vertical-align:baseline;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)"><br clear="all" style="outline:none 0px;background-position:0px 0px;overflow:hidden">

</span><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">SARAIVA, EF; SAUER, L; PEREIRA, BB; <span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">PEREIRA,

CAB</span>. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153)">A

PIECEWISE GROWTH MODEL FOR MODELING THE ACCUMULATED NUMBER OF COVID-19 CASES IN

THE CITY OF CAMPO GRANDE. <b><i>Brazilian J of Biometrics</i></b> 39 (240-265)

2021.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;vertical-align:baseline;margin:0in 0in 8pt;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="color:rgb(91,155,213)"><a href="https://doi.org/10.28951/rbb.v39i1.542" style="color:rgb(5,99,193)"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Helvetica,sans-serif;color:rgb(91,155,213);text-decoration-line:none">https://doi.org/10.28951/rbb.v39i1.542</span></a></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(91,155,213)"></span></b></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">SARAIVA,

EF;<b><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in"> </span></b><span style="text-transform:uppercase;border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">Pereira</span><span style="border:1pt none windowtext;padding:0in">, CAB</span>. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">Piecewise Modeling the Accumulated Daily Growth of

COVID-19 Deaths: The Case of the State of São Paulo, Brazil. <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-caps:small-caps;color:rgb(50,108,153)">Entropy<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"> <span style="font-size:8.5pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Tahoma,sans-serif;color:rgb(50,108,153);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">23,

1013, 2021.</span></p>

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 8pt;line-height:107%;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="color:rgb(91,155,213)"><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/e23081013" style="color:rgb(5,99,193)"><b><span style="font-size:9pt;line-height:107%;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(91,155,213);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;text-decoration-line:none">https://doi.org/10.3390/</span></b><b><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:rgb(91,155,213);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;text-decoration-line:none">e23081013</span></b></a></span></p></div></div>