<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto"><br><br><div dir="ltr">Sent from Hedibert's iPhone</div><div dir="ltr"><br>Begin forwarded message:<br><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><b>From:</b> Hedibert Freitas Lopes <HedibertFL@insper.edu.br><br><b>Date:</b> October 4, 2022 at 8:41:03 AM MST<br><b>To:</b> Hedibert Lopes <hedibert@gmail.com><br><b>Subject:</b> <b>Fwd: Academic Seminar of Data Science with Audra Virbickaitė of CUNEF - Online</b><br><br></div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr">
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<div dir="ltr"><b>From:</b> Insper - Seminários Acadêmicos <seminariosacademicos@insper.edu.br><br>
<b>Date:</b> October 4, 2022 at 4:51:17 AM MST<br>
<b>To:</b> Insper - Seminários Acadêmicos <seminariosacademicos@insper.edu.br><br>
<b>Subject:</b> <b>Academic Seminar of Data Science with Audra Virbickaitė of CUNEF - Online</b><br>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:105%"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026">Academic Seminar – Online</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:105%"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">Title:
</span></b><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Modeling stock-oil co-dependence with Dynamic Stochastic MIDAS Copula models</span>
<span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">
</span><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-autospace:none"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">Speaker:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">
</span><u><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:blue"><a href="https://www.cunef.edu/claustro/virbickaite-audrone/">Audra Virbickaitė</a><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-autospace:none"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-autospace:none"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">University:
</span></b><u><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:blue"><a href="https://www.cunef.edu/claustro/virbickaite-audrone/">CUNEF</a></span><span style="color:blue"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-autospace:none"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:115%"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:115%"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#333333">Abstract:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:gray">
</span><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Stock and oil relationship is usually time-varying and depends on the current economic conditions. In this study, we propose a new Dynamic Stochastic Mixed data sampling (DSM) copula model, that decomposes
the stock-oil relationship into a short-run dynamic stochastic component and a long-run component, governed by related macro-finance variables. Inference and prediction is carried out using a novel Bayesian estimation strategy, that can efficiently estimate
the latent states and delivers an estimate of the log marginal likelihood used for model comparison. We find that inflation/interest rate, uncertainty and liquidity factors are the main drivers of the long-run co-dependence. We show that the multi-step-ahead
variance covariance forecasts constructed using the proposed approach are closer to the true values as compared to the benchmark model. Finally, investment portfolios, based on the proposed DSM copula model, are more accurate and produce better economic outcomes
as compared to other alternatives.</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<a href="mailto:seminariosacademicos@insper.edu.brsubject=Contato"><span style="color:#F25560">seminariosacademicos@insper.edu.br</span></a></span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;line-height:105%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#7B7B7B"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/school/insper-edu/" target="_blank"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="32" height="32" style="width:.3333in;height:.3333in" id="Imagem_x0020_10" alt="image009.png" src="cid:image009.png@01D8D7CD.DDDB1660"></span></a><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:PT-BR"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/insper" target="_blank"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="19" height="32" style="width:.1979in;height:.3333in" id="Imagem_x0020_11" alt="image010.png" src="cid:image010.png@01D8D7CD.DDDB1660"></span></a><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:PT-BR"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><a href="https://twitter.com/insper" target="_blank"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="36" height="32" style="width:.375in;height:.3333in" id="Imagem_x0020_12" alt="image011.png" src="cid:image011.png@01D8D7CD.DDDB1660"></span></a><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:PT-BR"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/insperedu" target="_blank"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="32" height="32" style="width:.3333in;height:.3333in" id="Imagem_x0020_13" alt="image012.png" src="cid:image012.png@01D8D7CD.DDDB1660"></span></a><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:PT-BR"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.instagram.com/insperedu/" target="_blank"><span style="color:windowtext;text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="32" height="32" style="width:.3333in;height:.3333in" id="Imagem_x0020_14" alt="image013.png" src="cid:image013.png@01D8D7CD.DDDB1660"></span></a><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:black;mso-fareast-language:PT-BR"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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