<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote">Olá, pessoal,</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">Na próxima quinta-feira (27/10), a Escola de Matemática Aplicada da FGV vai receber o Professor Marc Suchard, da UCLA, para falar sobre seu trabalho com modelos  estocásticos compartimentais para doenças infecciosas e como fazer inferência para esses modelos.</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">O seminário ocorre às 16h de forma presencial na sede em Botafogo e também via Zoom (modelo híbrido). Os detalhes estão na mensagem abaixo.</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">Teremos muito prazer em recebê-los, seja presencial ou virtualmente.</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">Cordialmente,</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote">Luiz</div><div class="gmail_quote"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote"><br><div class="msg7795270179866570329"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" color="#000000" style="font-size:11pt"><b>Subject:</b> FGV EMAp | Seminário Híbrido: "Scalable stochastic compartmental models for infectious disease" por Marc Suchard</font>
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<p align="center" style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:center"><strong><span style="font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#1dc4ff">SEMINÁRIO ACADÊMICO - HÍBRIDO</span></strong><span style="color:#1dc4ff"></span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">SCALABLE STOCHASTIC COMPARTMENTAL MODELS FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE</span></b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;color:white"></span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.75pt"><strong><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">2</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">7<span style="color:white"> de
</span>outubro</span></strong><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white"><br>
16h</span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.75pt"><strong><span style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">Onde:</span></strong></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.75pt"><strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">a) Opção presencial</span></strong></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.75pt"><strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">Praia de Botafogo, 190 *</span></strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white"><br>
5^o andar, Auditório 537</span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.75pt"><b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">b) Opção remota
</span></b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">(via Zoom)</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.75pt"><b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">Link:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.5pt">
</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white"><a href="https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffgv-br.zoom.us%2Fj%2F98150756795%3Fpwd%3DQ28vd3o3K291MmpKa0o1SmZXaXY1QT09&data=05%7C01%7Cluiz.fagundes%40fgv.br%7Cc094ff0a08de4ffba3ee08dab5bcc6a2%7C79f6b639ab1242808077bdbeef869b33%7C0%7C0%7C638022119669578674%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wZR8cpWzMQE7uEtjqgpWB2Ji91iPRV4Qez78FPjLMtk%3D&reserved=0" target="_blank"><span style="color:white">https://fgv-br.zoom.us/j/98150756795?pwd=Q28vd3o3K291MmpKa0o1SmZXaXY1QT09</span></a><b></b></span></p>
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<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.75pt"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">Meeting ID: 981 5075 6795</span></p>
<p style="margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;line-height:15.75pt"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">Passcode: 546819</span><span style="color:white"></span></p>
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<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">Researchers struggle with likelihood-based inference from count data that arise continuously in time but we only intermittently observe them.  A major shortcoming
 lies in our inability to integrate most underlying stochastic processes generating the data over all possible realizations between observations.  Since these processes are ubiquitous across the natural, physical and social sciences as generative models, solutions
 should promote the use of statistical inference in many real-world problems.  One seemingly trivial example is a stochastic compartmental model tracking the count of susceptible, infectious and removed people during the spread of an infectious disease.  For
 over 90 years, many have believed the transition probabilities of this SIR model remain beyond reach.  However, applying a novel re-parameterization, integral transforms and other tools from numerical analysis shows that we can compute the transition probabilities
 in merely quadratic complexity in terms of the observed change in population size.  Other stochastic processes for modest numbers of outcomes, such as those employed to model molecular sequence evolution, yield well to advancing computing technology, such
 as many-core parallelization.  Examples in this talk stem from the dynamics of influenza across the global and the 2014-2015 West African ebola outbreak.</span><span style="color:white"></span></p>
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_{<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">Texto informado pelo autor</span>}_{<span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#595959">.</span>}</p>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">Palestrante:</span></b><span style="color:white"></span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">Marc Suchard</span></b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white"> - is Professor in the Departments of Biomathematics
 and of Human Genetics in the David Geffen School of Medicine and in the Department of Biostatistics in the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health at the University of California, Los Angeles. He was elected as a Fellow of the American Statistical Association
 in 2012 and received the COPSS Presidents' Award in 2013. His research interests  focus on biomathematical and biostatistical approaches to computational statistics, analyzing stochastic processes in molecular sequence data, longitudinal modeling of biomedical
 processes, and examining the patient-physician relationship</span><span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:white">.</span><span style="font-size:10.5pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">
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<span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif">* <span style="color:white">
Os participantes dos seminários não poderão acessar as dependências da FGV usando bermuda, chinelos, blusa modelo top ou cropped, minissaia ou camiseta regata. O uso da máscara
</span>é facultativo, porém é obrigatória <span style="color:white">a apresentação do comprovante de vacinação (físico ou digital).</span></span></p>
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<b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:white">ALABLE STOCHASTIC COMPARTMENTAL MODELS FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE</span></b></p>
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</div></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr" style="color:rgb(80,0,80)"><div dir="ltr">Luiz Max Fagundes de Carvalho</div><div dir="ltr">Lecturer, School of Applied Mathematics (EMAp), Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Brazil.</div><div dir="ltr">Praia de Botafogo, 190, Sala 511, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22250-900.</div><div dir="ltr">Brazil</div></div></div></div></div></div></div>