<div dir="ltr"><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr"><br></div><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:17.35pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">Prezados colegas,</span><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:17.35pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt">Nosso próximo encontro do COLMEA, o primeiro de 2023, será hoje  no IM-UFRJ.  Na ocasião teremos a seguinte programação:</span><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:17.35pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt">14:00h - Leonardo Soares Bastos (PROCC - Fiocruz)</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:17.35pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">Corrigindo atraso de notificação de doenças infecciosas: Nowcasting  bayesiano e extensões </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:17.35pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt">15:40h - </span></b><b><span style="font-size:12pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">Wanderson Luiz Silva (IGEO - UFRJ)</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:17.35pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">Mudanças climáticas: Tendências observadas e cenários futuros de extremos climáticos</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:17.35pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Todos são muito bem-vindos. </span><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:17.35pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt">Local do evento: Sala C-116,  Bloco C - Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ. Ilha do Fundão.</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:12.65pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Mais informações sobre o COLMEA podem ser encontradas através da homepage </span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"><a href="http://www.im.ufrj.br/~coloquiomea/" target="_blank">http://www.im.ufrj.br/~coloquiomea/</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:12.65pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:12.65pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Atenciosamente,</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">O comitê organizador: </span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Americo Cunha (UERJ)</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Evaldo M. F. Curado (CBPF)</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">João Batista M. Pereira (UFRJ)</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Leandro P. R. Pimentel (UFRJ)</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Maria Eulalia Vares (UFRJ)</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Nuno Crokidakis (UFF)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Roberto I. Oliveira (IMPA)</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Simon Griffiths (PUC-Rio)</span><span style="font-size:12pt;color:rgb(80,0,80)"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black">Yuri F. Saporito (FGV EMAp)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;color:black"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt">Corrigindo atraso de notificação de doenças infecciosas: Nowcasting bayesiano e extensões - Leonardo S. Bastos (PROCC - Fiocruz)</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><i><span style="font-size:12pt">O atraso de notificação é um problema conhecido no contexto da vigilância epidemiológica e ignorá-lo pode induzir ao erro um tomador de decisões de saúde pública. Portanto se faz necessário que o atraso de notificação seja corrigido em tempo real como parte de um sistema de monitoramento de epidemias, assim o início de uma epidemia de uma doença monitorada possa ser identificada de forma oportuna e ações de enfrentamento sejam tomadas com a devida urgência. Neste trabalho vamos apresentar o método de correção de atraso bayesiano usado em sistemas de monitoramento de arboviroses e da síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG). Extensões do método serão discutidas e alguns cenários atuais de dengue e COVID-19, via SRAG, no Brasil serão apresentados.</span></i><span style="font-size:12pt"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span style="font-size:12pt"><br>Mudanças climáticas: Tendências observadas e cenários futuros de extremos climáticos - Wanderson Luiz Silva (IGEO - UFRJ)</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt"><br><br><i>Extremos climáticos têm o potencial de ocasionar graves danos ambientais e prejuízos nos mais diversos setores socioeconômicos. Os últimos relatórios do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) mostram que tais eventos climáticos extremos têm se tornado mais frequentes e intensos em diversas áreas do globo. O maior desafio para a detecção de tendências no decorrer dos últimos anos é a consolidação de um robusto banco de dados diários de variáveis meteorológicas, como temperatura do ar e precipitação. Desse modo, várias pesquisas vêm reunindo e analisando esses dados para a identificação de possíveis mudanças no comportamento dos episódios extremos. No Brasil, há uma tendência quase que geral de aumento dos dias e noites extremamente quentes, assim como das chuvas intensas e secas prolongadas em determinadas regiões. O estado da arte em simulação climática para as próximas décadas provém dos modelos numéricos que representam o sistema climático terrestre. Trata-se da simulação de complexas interações conforme as emissões de gases de efeito estufa com o objetivo de projetar tendências até o final do século XXI. Nesse sentido, muitos trabalhos vêm mostrando uma continuidade dos eventos climáticos extremos para o futuro em grande parte do planeta, como elevação na duração e frequência de ondas de calor, bem como acentuados acumulados de chuva ocorrendo em curtos períodos. A preocupação com o clima futuro motiva estudos que aprimorem a predição de tais eventos severos no curtíssimo prazo, especialmente por meio de técnicas de inteligência artificial.</i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt"> </span></p></div></div><div id="m_6165215935461852053DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br><table style="border-top:1px solid #d3d4de"><tbody><tr><td style="width:55px;padding-top:13px"><a href="https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail" target="_blank"><img src="https://s-install.avcdn.net/ipm/preview/icons/icon-envelope-tick-round-orange-animated-no-repeat-v1.gif" alt="" width="46" height="29" style="width:46px;height:29px"></a></td><td style="width:470px;padding-top:12px;color:#41424e;font-size:13px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;line-height:18px">Não contém vírus.<a href="https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail" style="color:#4453ea" target="_blank">www.avast.com</a></td></tr></tbody></table><a href="#m_6165215935461852053_DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2" width="1" height="1"></a></div>
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