<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><br><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:16.8667px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px">Dear colleagues,</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;text-align:justify;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt">Our next seminar will be held on Monday, <b>December 11</b>,<b> </b>from <b>3:30 p.m. to 4:30 p.m</b>. (Rio de Janeiro local time).  This meeting will take place at room </span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt">C116 - Bloco C - CT</span></b><b><span lang="DE" style="font-size:12pt"> – Instituto de Matemática – UFRJ. </span></b><span lang="DE" style="font-size:12pt">There will be no transmission online.</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt"></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:12.65pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="DE" style="font-size:12pt"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:16.8667px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px;color:black">Speaker: <b> Widemberg da Silva Nobre (IM-UFRJ)</b></span><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px"></span></p><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="0" style="width:0cm;border-collapse:collapse"><tbody><tr><td width="0" nowrap valign="top" style="width:0.3pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;padding:0cm"></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">Title: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt">Causal Inference Under Mis-Specification: Adjustment Based on the Propensity Score</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;line-height:16.8667px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">Abstract: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px">We study Bayesian approaches to causal inference via propensity score regression. Much of Bayesian methodology relies on parametric and distributional assumptions, with presumed correct specification, whereas the extant propensity score methods in Bayesian literature have relied on approaches that cannot be viewed as fully Bayesian in the context of conventional ‘likelihood times prior’ posterior inference. We emphasize that causal inference is typically carried out in settings of mis-specification, and develop strategies for fully Bayesian inference that reflect this. We focus on methods based on decision-theoretic arguments, and show how inference based on loss-minimization can give valid and fully Bayesian inference. We propose a computational approach to inference based on the Bayesian bootstrap which has good Bayesian and frequentist properties.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;line-height:16.8667px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px">Link of the paper: </span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px"><a href="https://doi.org/10.1214/22-BA1322" style="color:rgb(5,99,193)" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="color:rgb(17,85,204)">https://doi.org/10.1214/22-BA1322</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;line-height:normal;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:16.8667px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px">More complete information about the seminars can be found at</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:16.8667px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><a href="http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3398" style="color:rgb(5,99,193)" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3398</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:16.8667px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px">Sincerely,</span><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 10pt;line-height:16.8667px;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,"sans-serif""><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:18.4px">Organizers: <span>Giulio</span> Iacobelli e Maria Eulalia Vares</span></p></div></div><div id="m_-7362008019912205333DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br><table style="border-top:1px solid #d3d4de"><tbody><tr><td style="width:55px;padding-top:13px"><a href="https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail" target="_blank"><img src="https://s-install.avcdn.net/ipm/preview/icons/icon-envelope-tick-round-orange-animated-no-repeat-v1.gif" alt="" width="46" height="29" style="width:46px;height:29px"></a></td><td style="width:470px;padding-top:12px;color:#41424e;font-size:13px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;line-height:18px">Não contém vírus.<a href="https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail" style="color:#4453ea" target="_blank">www.avast.com</a></td></tr></tbody></table><a href="#m_-7362008019912205333_DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2" width="1" height="1"></a></div>
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