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<td style="padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm;height:22.5pt"><br>Academic Seminar of Data Science with Pedro Lima - The University of Texas at Austin - Online<br><br></td>
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<p align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Title:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"> Large Bayesian
Vector Autoregressive Trees</span></p>
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<p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Palestrante:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"> Pedro Lima</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Universidade:
</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"> </span><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><a href="https://cns.utexas.edu/" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US">The University of Texas at Austin</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"></span></p>
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<p style="text-align:justify;line-height:115%"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Abstract:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">This
study enhances nonparametric Bayesian VAR models by incorporating methods to address limitations in handling high-dimensional data and time-dependent variables. It extends the VABART model framework by introducing a sparsity-inducing Dirichlet hyperprior for
variable selection, building on Linero's (2018) work, and proposes a novel prior that more aggressively shrinks coefficients on the lags of other variables while prioritizing their own lags, similar to the Minnesota Prior. These innovations aim to improve
the model's out-of-sample performance and the interpretation of impulse response functions, especially in the presence of economic shocks. Preliminary results show forecasting gains compared to the basic VABART formulation.</span></p>
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<p style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><img border="0" width="30" height="30" id="m_-8767305354480486280x_Imagem_x0020_8" alt="Ã cone Data" style="width:.3125in;height:.3125in" src="cid:ii_191be1a2e405b16b22"></span><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"></span></p>
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<p style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">September 5, 2024</span></p>
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<p style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><img border="0" width="30" height="31" id="m_-8767305354480486280x_Imagem_x0020_7" alt="Ã cone Hora" style="width:.3125in;height:.3263in" src="cid:ii_191be1a2e40692e333"></span><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"></span></p>
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<p style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">12pm, São Paulo, Brasil (UTC/GMT -03:00)</span></p>
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<p style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><img border="0" width="30" height="30" id="m_-8767305354480486280x_Imagem_x0020_6" alt="Ã cone Data" style="width:.3125in;height:.3125in" src="cid:ii_191be1a2e407745b44"></span><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"></span></p>
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<p style="line-height:115%"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"> </span></p>
<p style="line-height:115%"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Via Zoom
</span></p>
<p style="line-height:115%"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">The seminar will be streamed at the
</span><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><a href="https://zoom.us/j/95781336030" target="_blank"><span lang="EN-US">link</span></a> </span></p><p style="line-height:115%"><a href="https://zoom.us/j/95781336030">https://zoom.us/j/95781336030</a></p>
<p style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#232333;letter-spacing:.3pt;background:white">access password :
</span><span style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#232333;letter-spacing:.3pt">290524</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"></span></p>
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</div></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div><span class="gmail_signature_prefix">-- </span><br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Hedibert Freitas Lopes, PhD</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Professor of Statistics and Econometrics</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">INSPER - Institute of Education and Research</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Rua Quatá, 300 - São Paulo, SP 04546-042 Brazil</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Phone: +55 11 4504-2343</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><a href="http://www.hedibert.org" target="_blank">www.hedibert.org</a></span><br></div></div></div>