<html><body><div style="font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt; color: #000000"><div><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Prezados(as) redistas,</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">O Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística e Ciência de Dados (PGECD) da Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA) tem o prazer de convidar a todos(as) para a palestra do Professor Michel Kieffer, da <span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed;" data-mce-style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed;">Université Paris-Saclay (França)</span>.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">O seminário (em inglês) será realizado nesta <strong>sexta-feira, 30 de maio de 2025, às 10h45 (GMT-3)</strong>, por meio da sala virtual: <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 128);"><a href="https://conferenciaweb.rnp.br/ufba/aulas-ime" data-mce-href="https://conferenciaweb.rnp.br/ufba/aulas-ime"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 128);"><b>h<span style="text-decoration: underline; color: rgb(0, 0, 128);">ttps://conferenciaweb.rnp.br/ufba/aulas-ime</span></b></span></a></span>.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">A seguir, seguem mais informações sobre a palestra e o palestrante.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed;" data-mce-style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b>Title:</b> </span>Analysis and forecasting of the load of parcel pick-up points related to C2C e-commerce</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed;" data-mce-style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed;"><b>Abstract:</b> </span>Second-hand shopping, primarily via online marketplaces, has rapidly increased during the last decade. Nowadays, consumers widely choose the Pick-Up Point (PUP) service to facilitate the delivery of products. Parcels related to this Customer-to-Customer (C2C) activity are dropped off in PUPs chosen by the sellers, shipped to PUPs selected by the buyers where they wait to be picked up. The increased impact of C2C parcels on PUPs requires an improved control of their load to reduce the risks of PUP overload, parcel rerouting, and resulting customer dissatisfaction. This talk presents a forecasting approach for the load of PUPs receiving C2C parcels. The daily number of parcels dropped off with a given PUP as target is described by a Markov-Switching Auto-Regressive (MSAR) model to account for the non-stationarity of the second-hand shopping activity. The evolution of the parcel life cycle is then modeled as a Markov Jump Process. A PUP Management Company, using this forecasting approach, is able to propose customers only target PUPs that are likely not to be overloaded at time of delivery. </span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">The proposed approach is compared to load prediction techniques involving SARIMA, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Prophet, and TiDE models.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">References:</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">- T.-T.-T. Nguyen, A. Cabani, I. Cabani, K. De Turck, and M. Kieffer. Analysis and forecasting of C2C e commerce contribution to the load of parcel pick-up points. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 200, pp. 1-30, 2025</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">- T.-T.-T. Nguyen, A. Cabani, I. Cabani, K. De Turck, and M. Kieffer. Model-Based Forecasting of the Load of Parcel Pickup Points using a Markov Jump Process. Proc. IEEE Conf. on Decision and Control, Bologna, Italy, 2024.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Short-Bio:</b> </span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Michel Kieffer is a Full Professor in Signal Processing for Communications with the Université Paris-Saclay and a researcher with the Laboratoire des Signaux et Systèmes, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. From 2009 to 2015, he was a part-time Invited Professor with the Laboratoire Traitement et Communication de l’Information, Télécom ParisTech, Paris, France. He is coauthor of more than 200 contributions in journals, conference proceedings, or book chapters. He is one of the coauthors of the books Applied Interval Analysis (Springer-Verlag, 2001) and Joint Source-Channel Decoding: A Cross-Layer Perspective with Applications in Video Broadcasting (Academic, 2009).</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">His research interests are in signal processing for multimedia, communications, and networking; distributed source coding; network coding; joint source-channel coding and decoding techniques. Applications are mainly in the reliable delivery of multimedia contents over wireless channels. He is also interested in guaranteed and robust parameter and state bounding for distributed systems in a bounded-error context.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Prof. Kieffer was a junior member of the Institut Universitaire de France from 2011 to 2016. He serves as an Associate Editor of Signal Processing since 2008 and of has been Associate Editor of the IEEE Transactions on Communications from 2012 to 2016.</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Esperamos por vocês!</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> </span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Cordialmente,</span></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545; min-height: 14px;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;" data-mce-style="margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue'; color: #454545;"><span style="direction: ltr; unicode-bidi: embed; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Coordenação do PGECD-UFBA</span></p></div><div><br></div><div>-- <br></div><div><span name="x"></span>-- <br>Paulo Henrique Ferreira<br>Professor, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal da Bahia<br>Coordenador, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística e Ciência de Dados da UFBA<br>Coordenador, Centro de Estudos do Risco (CER-UFBA)<br>Editor Associado, Computational Statistics<br>CV Lattes: <a href="http://lattes.cnpq.br/8538524597034643">http://lattes.cnpq.br/8538524597034643</a></div></div></body></html>