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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://e.allin.insper.edu.br/bendar/?atmca=10094556&atmme=339&atmte=1&atmso=ck&utm_content=277659976&atmem=cm9kcmlnb2ZzM0BpbnNwZXIuZWR1LmJy" target="_blank">Insper</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://e.allin.insper.edu.br/bendar/?atmca=10094556&atmme=339&atmte=1&atmso=ck&utm_content=277659977&atmem=cm9kcmlnb2ZzM0BpbnNwZXIuZWR1LmJy" target="_blank">Accreditations</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://e.allin.insper.edu.br/bendar/?atmca=10094556&atmme=339&atmte=1&atmso=ck&utm_content=277659975&atmem=cm9kcmlnb2ZzM0BpbnNwZXIuZWR1LmJy" target="_blank">Academic Programs</a><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="xmsonormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="xmsonormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Title:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"> Intraday Crude Oil Volatility: Assessing
the Impact of Economic Announcements and Mixed-frequency Data<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Palestrante:</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">
<a href="https://www.cunef.edu/en/faculty-and-research/virbickaite-audrone/">Audrone Virbickaite</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">Universidade:
</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><a href="https://www.cunef.edu/en/">CUNEF Universidad</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="xmsonormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:115%"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US">Abstract:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:EN-US"> This
paper investigates the real-time impact of economic announcements and policy decisions on intraday crude oil volatility. The study employs a high-frequency Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach to capture the interaction between market volatility and economic
uncertainty. It uses spike-and-slab priors for the announcement coefficients to perform efficient variable selection in a high-dimensional setting. The results demonstrate that economic announcements significantly influence short-term oil price volatility,
while the evolution of volatility levels depends on certain economic indicators sampled at lower frequencies. The proposed model improves the accuracy of short-term volatility forecasts, providing valuable insights for market participants and policymakers.
The empirical evidence highlights the importance of timely economic information in forecasting oil market dynamics.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language:EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">September 4, 2025<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">12pm, São Paulo, Brasil (UTC/GMT -03:00)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">410 room, 4th floor - Claudio Haddad Building<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif">The seminar will be streamed at the
</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://zoom.us/j/95781336030">link</a></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><a href="https://zoom.us/j/95781336030" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">https://zoom.us/j/95781336030</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><br></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"></span></p>
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</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#232333;letter-spacing:.3pt;mso-fareast-language:PT-BR">290524</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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