[ABE-L] Fwd: Seminário PSC quinta feira dia 4 às 14h no ICMC: Tiago Pereira da Silva (ICMC-USP)

[Sandro Gallo]

Boa tarde a todos,

este email é para divulgar o seminário de Probabilidade e Sistemas complexos
 desta semana.

 Palestrante: Tiago Pereira da Silva (ICMC-USP)

*Local*: auditório do  Centro de Tecnologia da Informação no ICMC.

*Data e horário:* Quinta feira, dia 4 de maio de 2017 (amanhã!) às 14h.

*Título*: Impact of isolation on epidemic diseases.

*Abstract*: Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats
to mankind. The final severity of such an initially small infection
is significantly decided upon by the infectious period. We study isolation
as a means to control epidemic outbreaks, focusing on the consequences of
delays in isolating infected individuals. Our analysis uncovers a tipping
point: if infected nodes are isolated before a critical day, the disease is
effectively controlled, whereas for longer delays the disease is endemic.
In fact, if the critical isolation day is missed and the time spent in
quarantine is large, the disease outbreak becomes seasonal (periodic). We
discuss these  predictions in the context of recent Ebola and H1N1
outbreaks. This is a joint work with Lai-Sang Young (NYU), Serhiy Yanchuk
and Stefan Ruschel (TU Berlin)

Estão todos convidados!
Abraço,
Sandro
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