[ABE-L] Seminário do PIPGES UFSCar/USP

[Ricardo Sandes Ehlers]

Caros redistas, 

O PIPGEs UFSCar/USP convida para uma palestra no dia 26/5/2017 no auditório Luiz Antonio Fávaro, ICMC/USP. 

Jorge Luiz Bazan Guzman, ICMC/USP 

Título do trabalho: Power and reversal power links for binary regressions: 
An application for motor insurance policyholders 

Coautores: Francisco Torres-Avilés, Adriano K. Suzuki, Francisco Louzada. 

Resumo: In binary regression, symmetric links such as logit and probit are 
usually considered as standard. However, in the presence of unbalancing of 
ones and zeros, these links can be inappropriate and inflexible to fit the 
skewness in the response curve and likely to lead to misspecification. This 
is the case of covering some type of insurance, where it can be observed that 
the probability of a given binary response variable approaches zero at 
different rates than it approaches one. Furthermore, when usual links are 
considered, there is not a skewness parameter associated with the 
distribution chosen that, regardless of the linear predictor, is easily 
interpreted. In order to overcome such problems, a proposal for the 
construction of a set of new skew links is developed in this paper, where 
some of their properties are discussed. In this context, power links and 
their reversal versions are presented. A Bayesian inference approach using 
MCMC is developed for the presented models. The methodology is illustrated 
considering a sample of motor insurance policyholders selected randomly by 
gender. Results suggest that the proposed link functions are more appropriate 
than other alternative link functions commonly used in the literature. 


Ricardo S Ehlers 
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics 
Institute of Mathematical and Computer Sciences 
University of Sao Paulo at Sao Carlos 
P.O. Box 668 
13560-970 Sao Carlos - SP Brazil 

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