[ABE-L] Ciclo de Palestras - PPGE-IM/UFRJ - 22 de MAIO

[Maria Eulalia Vares]

Prezados colegas,

A nossa próxima palestra ocorrerá na quarta-feira, 22 de maio, no horário
das 15h30 às 17h00, Local: Laboratório de Sistemas Estocásticos (LSE), Sala
I-044-B, Centro de Tecnologia - UFRJ.

Detalhes do seminário seguem abaixo.

*Palestrante*: Luiz Max Carvalho (EMap/FGV)
*Título:* Principled Bayesian phylodynamics for pandemic preparation
*Resumo:*  The recent COVID-19 global Public Health emergency has laid bare
the need for properly preparing for the (re-)emergence of pathogens in
human and non-human populations. In this  context, it also became clear
that genomic surveillance is a major component of pandemic preparation,
allowing for the early detection of new pathogen variants. This wealth of
data necessitates, however, a framework for data preparation and
integration, as well as analytical methods that can extract epidemiological
insight from the combined genomic and epidemiological
information. Phylodynamic methods employ a model-based approach to extract
information from this sort of data, combining phylogenetic trees and
epidemiological models. In this talk I will discuss the methodological
challenges of phylodynamics, devoting attention to two topics: prior
elicitation and computation (via MCMC and variational methods). I will
present some pitfalls of seemingly 'uninformative' priors and discuss a
number of examples, including population reconstruction and mutation
heterogeneity. Moreover, I shall discuss ideas for making sure our
methodological apparatus is up to scrutiny through simulation-based
calibration (SBC), which needs adaptation to work in a non-standard metric
space such as treespace. In summary, I will give an overview of the current
methodological canon in phylodynamics and ways to tackle the major
challenges ahead.
Keywords: Bayesian Statistics, Phylodynamics, Genomic surveillance

Mais informações podem ser encontradas no site:
https://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3486


Atenciosamente,



-- 
Maria Eulalia Vares
Professora Titular - Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ
Coordenadora do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística
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