[ABE-L] Ciclo de Seminários do PPGE/2026.1

['Francisco Cysneiros' via abe-l@ime.usp.br]

Ciclo de Seminários do PPGE/2026.1


Temos o prazer de anunciar que, no dia  10 de junho de 2026,
o seminário será ministrado pelo  Prof. Dr. Rafael Izbick-  UFSCar

seminário de Pós-Graduação


Quarta-feira, 10 de junho · 2:00 – 4:00pm

Fuso horário: America/Recife

Como participar do Google Meet

Link da videochamada: https://meet.google.com/zrt-vwza-jut

Ou disque: (BR) +55 11 4949-3129 PIN: 171 543 726#

Outros números de telefone: https://tel.meet/zrt-vwza-jut?pin=5972404435753


*Título:* Calibrated, Epistemic-Aware, and Interpretable Uncertainty in
Machine Learning


*Resumo:* Machine learning has become a modern oracle: it produces
predictions across several disciplines with remarkable accuracy. But
perfect predictions are not always possible. Reliable decision-making,
therefore, requires more than a single answer. A good model should also
know what it does not know. This talk discusses uncertainty quantification
as a central ingredient of trustworthy machine learning. I will start from
conformal prediction, a distribution-free framework that turns point
predictions into prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees
under exchangeability. I will then introduce CREDO, a method that combines
conformal calibration with credal uncertainty modeling for regression.
CREDO constructs epistemic-aware prediction intervals that widen in
data-sparse regions, remain calibrated after conformalization, and admit an
interpretable decomposition into aleatoric uncertainty, epistemic
uncertainty, and calibration slack. Finally, I will discuss how the same
calibration principle extends beyond prediction to statistical inference.

Atenciosamente,
-- 
Francisco José A. Cysneiros
Full professor
Departament of Statistics - UFPE
Co-Director of Department of Statistics, UFPE 2005-2009
Co-Director of Graduate Studies, Statistics, UFPE 2009-2013
Director of Graduate Studies, Statistics, UFPE 2013-2017
Co-Director of Graduate Studies, Statistics, UFPE 2026-2028
Editor in Chief of Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics
My URLs:
www.de.ufpe.br/~cysneiros  <http://www.de.ufpe.br/~cysneiros>
http://150.161.44.6/cysneiros

Lattes:

*ResearchedID:*
*Publons:*
http://lattes.cnpq.br/1313497098151734
http://www.researcherid.com/rid/G-6333-2012
https://publons.com/a/1540091
ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6757-6969


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