<div dir="ltr">O modelo de previsão do PollingData poderia ter ido melhor, fiz uma suposição que mostrou não ser adequada. Pra quem quiser ver a analise' bem resumida da performance do modelo, veja esse post:<div><br></div><div><div style="font-size:12.8px"><a href="http://sleekdata.blogspot.com.br/2016/04/performance-do-modelo-de-previsao-do.html" target="_blank">http://sleekdata.blogspot.com.br/2016/04/performance-do-modelo-de-previsao-do.html</a></div></div><div style="font-size:12.8px"><br></div><div style="font-size:12.8px">O modelo de previsão da votação no Senado j'a esta' no ar, acessem o site pra ver!</div><div style="font-size:12.8px"><br></div><div style="font-size:12.8px">Abraços Neale</div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">Em 18 de abril de 2016 20:36, Ribeiro Tavares,Heliton <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:heliton.tavares@coe.ufl.edu" target="_blank">heliton.tavares@coe.ufl.edu</a>></span> escreveu:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr" style="font-size:12pt;color:#000000;background-color:#ffffff;font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif">
<p>Prezados,<br>
</p>
<p>As previsões foram muito boas na Câmara. E quanto ao Senado?<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<h4 style="font-family:'Open Sans','Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;line-height:1.1;color:rgb(64,64,64);margin-top:10px;margin-bottom:10px;font-size:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
Previsão com dados do Movimento Brasil Livre</h4>
<table style="border-spacing:0px;border-collapse:collapse;padding:0px;color:rgb(64,64,64);font-family:Lora,'Times New Roman',serif;font-size:18px;line-height:25.7143px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<tbody style="margin-top:0px">
<tr style="border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px;padding:0px">
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">Ausência</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">0%</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">2,5%</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">5%</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">10%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px;padding:0px;background-color:rgb(248,248,248)">
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">Limite superior</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
73,68%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
69,98%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
69,78%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
66,28%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px;padding:0px">
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">Limite inferior</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
70,95%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
67,64%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
67,25%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
63,94%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px;padding:0px;background-color:rgb(248,248,248)">
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">Estimativa média</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
72,31%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
68,81%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
68,51%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
65,11%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px;padding:0px">
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">Resultado:</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
A favor</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
A favor</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
A favor</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
Contra</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="margin:30px 0px;line-height:1.5;color:rgb(64,64,64);font-family:Lora,'Times New Roman',serif;font-size:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<em style="margin-top:0px">Dados obtidos em:</em> 15/04/2016 às 20:00</p>
<h4 style="font-family:'Open Sans','Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;line-height:1.1;color:rgb(64,64,64);margin-top:10px;margin-bottom:10px;font-size:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
Previsão com dados do Datafolha</h4>
<table style="border-spacing:0px;border-collapse:collapse;padding:0px;color:rgb(64,64,64);font-family:Lora,'Times New Roman',serif;font-size:18px;line-height:25.7143px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<tbody style="margin-top:0px">
<tr style="border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px;padding:0px">
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">Ausência</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">0%</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">2,5%</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">5%</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">10%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px;padding:0px;background-color:rgb(248,248,248)">
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">Estimativa média</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
72,81%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
70,08%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
68,91%</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
65,99%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px;padding:0px">
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
<span style="font-weight:700;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px">Resultado:</span></td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
A favor</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
A favor</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
A favor</td>
<td style="padding:6px 13px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);margin:0px">
Contra</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="margin:30px 0px;line-height:1.5;color:rgb(64,64,64);font-family:Lora,'Times New Roman',serif;font-size:18px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<em style="margin-top:0px">Dados obtidos em:</em> 12/04/2016<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
</div>
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<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div>Knowledge is only part of understanding. Genuine understanding comes from hands-on experience.</div><div dir="ltr">(Seymour Papert)<br><div><br>-----------------------------------------------<br>Neale Ahmed El-Dash<br>Doutor em Estatística<br>Celular: +55 19 998893939<br>Email: <a href="mailto:neale.eldash@gmail.com" target="_blank">neale.eldash@gmail.com</a><div style="display:inline"></div></div></div></div></div></div>
</div>