<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Rafael,</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Excelente o artigo que você compartilhou. </div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Dois comentários feitos no artigo ecoam bem de perto com nossa situação relativa a pesquisas eleitorais:</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">a) microdados publicados;</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">b) metodologia publicada de forma transparente.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Muito poucas das nossas pesquisas, se é que alguma delas, satisfaz as duas condições acima.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Algo que é rotina no meio das estatísticas oficiais brasileiras, é a exceção no contexto de estatísticas públicas de grande impacto, como é o caso das pesquisas eleitorais.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Como bom cartório que somos, todas as pesquisas precisam ter um estatístico registrado como responsável, e registrar a metodologia no TSE. Uma amostra rápida dos documentos ali depositados revela a pobreza de detalhes dos documentos metodológicos e o descaso para com a transparência sobre como são obtidos os dados que dão origem a tais estatísticas.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Talvez esteja na hora de uma campanha para adoção de padrões similares aos que seguem os produtores de estatísticas oficiais junto aos produtores de quaisquer estatísticas públicas.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Saudações, Pedro.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"> </div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">2016-10-12 16:06 GMT-03:00 Raphael Nishimura por (abe) <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:abe@lists.ime.usp.br" target="_blank">abe@lists.ime.usp.br</a>></span>:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div><div style="color:#000;background-color:#fff;font-family:HelveticaNeue,Helvetica Neue,Helvetica,Arial,Lucida Grande,sans-serif;font-size:13px"><div id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_2963" dir="ltr">Interessante artigo no The Upshot do NY Times mostrando um exemplo do que pode ser feito quando os dados e documentação metodológica de pesquisas eleitorais são disponíveis e transparentes para o público. </div><div id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_2963" dir="ltr"><br></div><div id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_2963" dir="ltr"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0" id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_2986" class="m_4053900395000568360enhancr2_3125244c-2fce-384c-a435-2183bfbf7d7c" target="_blank">How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages</a><br></div><div id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_2963" dir="ltr"><br></div><div id="m_4053900395000568360enhancr2_3125244c-2fce-384c-a435-2183bfbf7d7c" class="m_4053900395000568360yahoo-link-enhancr-card m_4053900395000568360ymail-preserve-class m_4053900395000568360ymail-preserve-style m_4053900395000568360img-overlay-selected" style="max-width:400px;font-family:'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif" dir="ltr"> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0" style="text-decoration:none!important;color:#000!important" class="m_4053900395000568360yahoo-enhancr-cardlink" rel="noreferrer" id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_3014" target="_blank"> <span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span><table class="m_4053900395000568360card-wrapper m_4053900395000568360yahoo-ignore-table" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" style="max-width:400px" id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_3013"> <tbody id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_3012"><tr id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_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 </font></span></td> <td style="text-align:right;padding:16px 12px 16px 0">  </td> </tr></tbody></table><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span></td></tr></tbody></table><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"> </font></span></a></div><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><div id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_3339"><br></div><div id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_3339"><br></div><div id="m_4053900395000568360yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476298924524_3339">- Raphael Nishimura</div></font></span></div></div><br>______________________________<wbr>_________________<br>
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<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><font face="verdana, sans-serif">Pedro Luis do Nascimento Silva</font><div><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><b>ISI President 2015-2017</b><br>IBGE - Escola Nacional de Ciências Estatísticas</font></div><div><font face="verdana, sans-serif">IBGE - National School of Statistical Sciences<br>Phone: +55 21 21424957</font></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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