<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"></div><div dir="ltr"><div align="center" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:-webkit-standard"><table class="gmail-MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="607" style="width:455.25pt"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0cm"></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0cm"><table class="gmail-MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="width:607px"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0cm 0cm 15pt"><table class="gmail-MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" style="padding:0.75pt 26.25pt 0.75pt 37.5pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:red">Dynamic Chain Graph Models for Time Series Network Data</span></b><span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><b><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">Palestrante:</span></b><span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:10.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">Osvaldo Anacleto</span><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br></span><span style="font-size:8pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">University of Edinburgh</span><span></span></p><table class="gmail-MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="480" style="width:360pt"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color:rgb(230,231,232);padding:12.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri;text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">This paper introduces a new class of Bayesian dynamic models for inference and forecasting in high-dimensional time series observed on networks. The new model, called the dynamic chain graph model, is suitable for multivariate time series which exhibit symmetries within subsets of series and a causal drive mechanism between these subsets. The model can accommodate high-dimensional, non-linear and non-normal time series and enables local and parallel computation by decomposing the multivariate problem into separate, simpler sub-problems of lower dimensions. The advantages of the new model are illustrated by forecasting traffic network flows and also modelling gene expression data from transcriptional networks.</span><span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" style="padding:7.5pt 0.75pt 0.75pt 33.75pt"><table class="gmail-MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="0" width="535" style="width:401.25pt"><tbody><tr><td width="59" valign="top" style="width:44.25pt;padding:3.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><b><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">Data:</span></b><span></span></p></td><td width="453" valign="top" style="width:339.75pt;padding:3.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">27 de junho de 2017 (terça-feira)</span><span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td width="59" valign="top" style="width:44.25pt;padding:3.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><b><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">Horário:</span></b><span></span></p></td><td valign="top" style="padding:3.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">12</span><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">h</span><span></span></p></td></tr><tr><td width="59" valign="top" style="width:44.25pt;padding:3.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><b><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">Local:</span></b><span></span></p></td><td valign="top" style="padding:3.75pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri"><i><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Campus</span></i><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)"> Insper</span><br><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Verdana;color:rgb(51,51,51)">Rua Quatá, 300 - Vila Olímpia<br>Sala Paulo Renato de Souza – 2º andar</span><span></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0cm"><table class="gmail-MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="width:607px"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0cm"><br></td><td style="padding:0cm"><br></td><td style="padding:0cm"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size: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