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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:16pt">Boa
noite pessoal.<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:16pt"><span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:16pt">Desculpe-me
incomoda-los novamente, mas gostaria de confirmar a palestra do Professor
visitante Ed George na 6ª-feira entre 13h30 e 15h na sala 410 do 4º andar do Insper.<span> </span>O artigo (e material suplementar associado) segue em anexo.<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:16pt"><span> </span><span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:16pt">Abs,<span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:16pt">Hedibert<span></span></span></p>
<br><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Feb 6, 2018 at 5:06 PM, Hedibert Lopes <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:hedibert@gmail.com" target="_blank">hedibert@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto">Boa tarde pessoal,<div><br></div><div>Gostaria de convida-los a vir ao insper na sexta-feira para uma palestra de um tema muito interessante do Prof. Edward George da Wharton School of Business da University of Pennsylvania.</div><div><br></div><div>Quem se interessar me avise para eu colocar o nome numa lista para acesso na portaria do prédio principal do Insper.</div><div><br></div><div>Abraços,</div><div>Hedibert</div><div><br><blockquote type="cite"><div>
<p class="m_3543465800300820450MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span><span style="font-family:Arial">Title</span></span><span style="font-family:Arial">: Mortality Rate Estimation and Standardization for Public <span>Reporting</span>: Medicare's Hospital
Compare<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="m_3543465800300820450MsoNormalCxSpMiddle"><span style="font-family:Arial">Abstract: Bayesian models are increasingly fit to large administrative data sets and then used to make individualized recommendations. In particular, Medicare’s Hospital Compare webpage
provides information to patients about specific hospital mortality rates for a heart attack or Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI). Hospital Compare’s current recommendations are based on a random-effects logit model with a random hospital indicator and patient
risk factors. Except for the largest hospitals, these individual recommendations or predictions are not checkable against data, because data from smaller hospitals are too limited to provide a meaningful check. Before individualized Bayesian recommendations,
people derived general advice from empirical studies of many hospitals; e.g., prefer hospitals of type 1 to type 2 because the risk is lower at type 1 hospitals. Here we calibrate these Bayesian recommendation systems by checking, out of sample, whether their
predictions aggregate to give correct general advice derived from another sample. This process of calibrating individualized predictions against general empirical advice leads to substantial revisions in the Hospital Compare model for AMI mortality. In order
to make appropriately calibrated predictions, our revised models incorporate information about hospital volume, nursing staff, medical residents, and the hospital’s ability to perform cardiovascular procedures. For the ultimate purpose of comparisons, hospital
mortality rates must be standardized to adjust for patient mix variation across hospitals. We find that indirect standardization, as currently used by Hospital Compare, fails to adequately control for differences in patient risk factors and systematically
underestimates mortality rates at the low volume hospitals. To provide good control and correctly calibrated rates, we propose direct standardization instead. (This is joint research with Veronika Rockova, Paul Rosenbaum, Ville Satopaa and Jeffrey Silber).</span></p>
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</div></blockquote></div></div></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Hedibert Freitas Lopes, PhD</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Professor of Statistics and Econometrics</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">INSPER - Institute of Education and Research</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Rua Quatá, 300 - São Paulo, SP 04546-042 Brazil</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Phone: +55 11 4504-2343</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><a href="http://www.hedibert.org" target="_blank">www.hedibert.org</a></span><br></div></div>
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