<div dir="ltr"><div>Obrigado Richard.</div><div><br></div><div>Não, eu não tentei prever o voto dos indecisos. </div><div><br></div><div>Abraço</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr">Em dom, 28 de out de 2018 às 16:40, Richard Santos <a href="mailto:jamesrichardsantos@gmail.com">jamesrichardsantos@gmail.com</a> [STAT-MATH] <<a href="mailto:STAT-MATH@yahoogrupos.com.br">STAT-MATH@yahoogrupos.com.br</a>> escreveu:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<u></u>
<div style="background-color:#fff">
<span style="display:none"> </span>
<div id="m_8944508867470438589ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id="m_8944508867470438589ygrp-msg">
<div id="m_8944508867470438589ygrp-text">
<p><div dir="auto">Muito legal o "sem a tendencia" e "com tendencia". Tem tambem com a estimativa da decisao dos indecisos?<div dir="auto">Richard</div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr">Em Dom, 28 de out de 2018 14:34, Neale El-Dash <a href="mailto:neale.eldash@gmail.com" target="_blank">neale.eldash@gmail.com</a> [STAT-MATH] <<a href="mailto:STAT-MATH@yahoogrupos.com.br" target="_blank">STAT-MATH@yahoogrupos.com.br</a>> escreveu:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left:1px #ccc solid">
<u></u>
<div style="background-color:#fff">
<span> </span>
<div id="m_8944508867470438589m_1857780848397145357ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id="m_8944508867470438589m_1857780848397145357ygrp-msg">
<div id="m_8944508867470438589m_1857780848397145357ygrp-text">
<p><div dir="ltr"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR">O site
Polling Data (<a href="http://www.pollingdata.com.br/" style="color:rgb(5,99,193)" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">http://www.pollingdata.com.br/</a>)
foi atualizado agora para incluir uma novidade. Estamos calculando as
probabilidades de vitória dos candidatos sob 2 cenários diferentes:</span></p>
<p class="m_8944508867470438589m_1857780848397145357gmail-MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 36pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><a name="m_8944508867470438589_m_1857780848397145357_OLE_LINK2" rel="noreferrer"></a><a name="m_8944508867470438589_m_1857780848397145357_OLE_LINK1" rel="noreferrer"><span lang="PT-BR">1-<span style="font-stretch:normal;font-size:7pt;font-family:"Times New Roman""> </span></span><b><span lang="PT-BR">Cenário Padrão</span></b></a><span lang="PT-BR">:
esse é o cenário padrão do site, o qual supõe que após a última pesquisa, a
opinião pública não se altera. Ou seja, não existe crescimento/redução da
intenção de voto dos candidatos após a última pesquisa publicada.</span><span lang="PT-BR"></span></p>
<p class="m_8944508867470438589m_1857780848397145357gmail-MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt 36pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR">2-<span style="font-stretch:normal;font-size:7pt;font-family:"Times New Roman""> </span></span><b><span lang="PT-BR">Cenário Alternativo</span></b><span lang="PT-BR">: nesse cenário supõem-se que o crescimento/redução da intenção de voto
dos candidatos continua até o dia da eleição, e com a mesma “velocidade”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span lang="PT-BR">Acesse o
site para ver qual é a probabilidade de vitória do candidato Fernando Haddad
(PT) se o '<a name="m_8944508867470438589_m_1857780848397145357_OLE_LINK4" rel="noreferrer"></a><a name="m_8944508867470438589_m_1857780848397145357_OLE_LINK3" rel="noreferrer">momentum' </a>obtido por ele nos últimos dias se mantiver até o
encerramento da eleição.</span></p><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="m_8944508867470438589m_1857780848397145357gmail_signature" data="https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/Zx1WMGOOJo7MuUI8GC4MNUhWJH40Z_ST5iCpCO5oFhswV8Dv0o5TVXuf6gfD241jW6H1mF7RqftqfmyRILPbJYV_JrVMVcGCEjLI8fx_l2w7I1gmF_ucVAskRTFcn0SGTANzl5n70jZhKokLuEEy0LLx2hjlB-Ur7KET0uVsoHIc95dHlw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://ci6..googleusercontent.com/proxy/aya5v5NybogpBh1u-qsi36skYYgRapm463_SNN10-unYwK3bkDHKF5m_dH4=s0-d-e1-ft"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div>Knowledge is only part of understanding. Genuine understanding comes from hands-on experience.</div><div dir="ltr">(Seymour Papert)<br><div><br>-----------------------------------------------<br>Neale Ahmed El-Dash<br>Doutor em Estatística<br>Celular: +55 19 998893939<br>Email: <a href="mailto:neale.eldash@gmail.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">neale.eldash@gmail.com</a><div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
</p>
</div>
<div style="color:#fff;height:0"></div>
</div>
</div></div></blockquote></div>
</p>
</div>
<div style="color:#fff;height:0">__._,_.___</div>
<div style="clear:both"> </div>
<div id="m_8944508867470438589fromDMARC" style="margin-top:10px">
<hr style="height:2px;border-width:0;color:#e3e3e3;background-color:#e3e3e3">
Enviado por: Richard Santos <<a href="mailto:jamesrichardsantos@gmail.com" target="_blank">jamesrichardsantos@gmail.com</a>> <hr style="height:2px;border-width:0;color:#e3e3e3;background-color:#e3e3e3">
</div>
<div style="clear:both"> </div>
<table cellspacing="4px" style="margin-top:10px;margin-bottom:10px;color:#2d50fd">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="font-size:12px;font-family:arial;font-weight:bold;padding:7px 5px 5px">
<a style="text-decoration:none;color:#2d50fd" href="https://br.groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/STAT-MATH/conversations/messages/35414;_ylc=X3oDMTJxOWF0YzBmBF9TAzk3NDkwNDM3BGdycElkAzMyNTIxNDUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMyMTM3MTExNjA1BG1zZ0lkAzM1NDE0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3JwbHkEc3RpbWUDMTU0MDc1NTU4MQ--?act=reply&messageNum=35414" target="_blank">Responder através da web</a>
</td>
<td>•</td>
<td style="font-size:12px;font-family:arial;padding:7px 5px 5px">
<a href="mailto:jamesrichardsantos@gmail.com?subject=Res%3A%20Re%3A%20%5BSTAT-MATH%5D%20%5BSPAM%5D%20PollingData%20atualizado%20com%20uma%20novidade%20importante%21" style="text-decoration:none;color:#2d50fd" target="_blank">
</a>
</td>
<td>•</td>
<td style="font-size:12px;font-family:arial;padding:7px 5px 5px">
<a href="mailto:STAT-MATH@yahoogrupos.com.br?subject=Res%3A%20Re%3A%20%5BSTAT-MATH%5D%20%5BSPAM%5D%20PollingData%20atualizado%20com%20uma%20novidade%20importante%21" style="text-decoration:none;color:#2d50fd" target="_blank">
através de email </a>
</td>
<td>•</td>
<td style="font-size:12px;font-family:arial;padding:7px 5px 5px">
<a href="https://br.groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/STAT-MATH/conversations/newtopic;_ylc=X3oDMTJlcWxjN2g5BF9TAzk3NDkwNDM3BGdycElkAzMyNTIxNDUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMyMTM3MTExNjA1BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA250cGMEc3RpbWUDMTU0MDc1NTU4MQ--" style="text-decoration:none;color:#2d50fd" target="_blank">Adicionar um novo tópico</a>
</td>
<td>•</td>
<td style="font-size:12px;font-family:arial;padding:7px 5px 5px;color:#2d50fd">
<a href="https://br.groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/STAT-MATH/conversations/topics/35413;_ylc=X3oDMTM2MjNndTFrBF9TAzk3NDkwNDM3BGdycElkAzMyNTIxNDUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMyMTM3MTExNjA1BG1zZ0lkAzM1NDE0BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3Z0cGMEc3RpbWUDMTU0MDc1NTU4MQR0cGNJZAMzNTQxMw--" style="text-decoration:none;color:#2d50fd" target="_blank">Mensagens neste tópico</a>
(2)
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div id="m_8944508867470438589ygrp-vital" style="background-color:#f2f2f2;font-family:Verdana;font-size:10px;margin-bottom:10px;padding:10px">
<span id="m_8944508867470438589vithd" style="font-weight:bold;color:#333;text-transform:uppercase"><a href="https://br.groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/STAT-MATH/info;_ylc=X3oDMTJlN3MyczJ1BF9TAzk3NDkwNDM3BGdycElkAzMyNTIxNDUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMyMTM3MTExNjA1BHNlYwN2dGwEc2xrA3ZnaHAEc3RpbWUDMTU0MDc1NTU4MQ--" style="text-decoration:none" target="_blank">Visite seu Grupo</a></span>
<ul style="list-style-type:none;margin:0;padding:0;display:inline">
<li style="border-right:1px solid #000;font-weight:700;display:inline;padding:0 5px;margin-left:0">
<span class="m_8944508867470438589cat"><a href="https://br.groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/STAT-MATH/members/all;_ylc=X3oDMTJmNmtic2k1BF9TAzk3NDkwNDM3BGdycElkAzMyNTIxNDUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMyMTM3MTExNjA1BHNlYwN2dGwEc2xrA3ZtYnJzBHN0aW1lAzE1NDA3NTU1ODE-" style="text-decoration:none" target="_blank">Novos usuários</a></span>
<span class="m_8944508867470438589ct" style="color:#ff7900">4</span>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="m_8944508867470438589ft" style="font-family:Arial;font-size:11px;margin-top:5px;padding:0 2px 0 0;clear:both">
<a href="https://br.groups.yahoo.com/neo;_ylc=X3oDMTJkYmd2cDRpBF9TAzk3NDkwNDM1BGdycElkAzMyNTIxNDUEZ3Jwc3BJZAMyMTM3MTExNjA1BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2dmcARzdGltZQMxNTQwNzU1NTgx" style="float:left" target="_blank"><img src="http://l.yimg.com/ru/static/images/yg/img/email/new_logo/yahoo_groups_pt-BR_141x19.png" height="19" width="141" alt="Yahoo! Grupos" style="border:0"></a>
<div style="color:#747575;float:right"> • <a href="https://info.yahoo.com/privacy/br/yahoo/groups/details.html" style="text-decoration:none" target="_blank">Privacidade</a> • <a href="mailto:STAT-MATH-unsubscribe@yahoogrupos.com.br?subject=Sair+do+grupo" style="text-decoration:none" target="_blank">Sair do grupo</a> • <a href="https://info.yahoo.com/legal/br/yahoo/utos/terms/" style="text-decoration:none" target="_blank">Termos de uso</a> </div>
</div>
<br>
</div>
<div id="m_8944508867470438589ygrp-sponsor" style="width:160px;float:right;clear:none;margin:0 0 25px 0;background:#fff">
<div id="m_8944508867470438589ygrp-reco">
</div>
<div id="m_8944508867470438589ygrp-lc">
<div id="m_8944508867470438589hd"></div>
<div id="m_8944508867470438589lc">
<div class="m_8944508867470438589ad" style="color:#628c2a;font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold">
</div>
<div class="m_8944508867470438589ad" style="color:#628c2a;font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold">
</div>
<div class="m_8944508867470438589ad" style="color:#628c2a;font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold">
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="clear:both;color:#fff;font-size:1px">.</div>
</div>
<img src="http://geo.yahoo.com/serv?s=97490437/grpId=3252145/grpspId=2137111605/msgId=35414/stime=1540755581/nc1=1234567/nc2=2/nc3=3" width="1" height="1"> <br>
<img src="http://y.analytics.yahoo.com/fpc.pl?ywarid=515FB27823A7407E&a=10001310322279&js=no&resp=img" width="1" height="1">
<div style="color:#fff;height:0">__,_._,___</div>
</div>
</blockquote></div><br clear="all"><br>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><br></div>Knowledge is only part of understanding. Genuine understanding comes from hands-on experience.</div><div dir="ltr">(Seymour Papert)<br><div><br>-----------------------------------------------<br>Neale Ahmed El-Dash<br>Doutor em Estatística<br>Celular: +55 19 998893939<br>Email: <a href="mailto:neale.eldash@gmail.com" target="_blank">neale.eldash@gmail.com</a><div style="display:inline"></div></div></div></div></div></div>