<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto"><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt">Boa tarde pessoal,</span></b><div><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt"><br></span></b></div><div><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt">Gostaria de lembrar a todos que o seminario </span></b></div><div><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt">de ciência de dados e decisão de fevereiro </span></b></div><div><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt">sera’ nessa 2ª-feira.</span></b></div><div><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt"><br></span></b></div><div><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt">Abs e bom final de semana,</span></b></div><div><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt">Hedibert</span></b></div><div><font face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b><br></b></span></font></div><div><font face="Calibri, sans-serif"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><b><br></b></span></font><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><div class="WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="PT-BR"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellpadding="0" width="32" style="width:24.0pt;margin-left:5.4pt"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><div><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p></div><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellpadding="0" width="600" style="width:450.0pt;margin-left:5.4pt"><tbody><tr style="height:446.95pt"><td style="padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt;height:446.95pt"><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:0cm"><b><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026">Ciência de Dados e Decisão<br></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026">Seminários Acadêmicos</span><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:0cm"><b><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042">Replication or exploration? Sequential design for stochastic simulation experiments.</span></b><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:0cm"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042"> </span><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:0cm"><span style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042"><br></span><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042">Palestrante:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042"> Robert Gramacy<br><b>Universidade:</b> College of Science at Virginia Polytechnic and State University</span><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"><o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:0cm"><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:0cm"><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"><br></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042">We investigate the merits of replication, and provide methods that search for optimal designs (including replicates), in the context of noisy computer simulation experiments. We first show that replication offers the potential to be beneficial from both design and computational perspectives, in the context of Gaussian process surrogate modeling. We then develop a lookahead based sequential design scheme that can determine if a new run should be at an existing input location (i.e., replicate) or at a new one (explore). When paired with a newly developed heteroskedastic Gaussian process model, our dynamic design scheme facilitates learning of signal and noise relationships which can vary throughout the input space. We show that it does so efficiently, on both computational and statistical grounds. In addition to illustrative synthetic examples, we demonstrate performance on two challenging real-data simulation experiments, from inventory management and epidemiology.</span><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:0cm"><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042"> </span><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5.0pt;margin-left:0cm"><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042"><br></span><b><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026">Data:</span></b><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042">11/02/2019<br></span><b><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026">Horário:</span></b><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042">12h00 <br></span><b><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026">Local:</span></b><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042"> Sala 308 – 3° andar Insper </span><span style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042"><img border="0" width="19" height="19" style="width:.1979in;height:.1979in" id="_x0000_i1032" src="cid:image002.jpg@01D4BFD3.D4D94340" alt="cid:DA4B94688907BC0726CBDD99FF6FA896B3B04912@lamprd80.prod.outlook.com"></span><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#414042"> </span><span lang="PT-BR" style="font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:#C00026"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div 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fotografias realizadas no evento poderão ser utilizadas em qualquer meio de mídia para uso institucional.</span></i><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr><td style="background:#C00026;padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;background:#C00026"> </span><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></tbody></table><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p></div></div> </div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><img src="cid:image001.jpg@01D4BFD3.D4D94340" id="image001.jpg@01D4BFD3.D4D94340"></div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><img src="cid:image002.jpg@01D4BFD3.D4D94340" id="image002.jpg@01D4BFD3.D4D94340"></div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><img src="cid:image003.jpg@01D4BFD3.D4D94340" 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