<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto"> <div dir="ltr" id="AppleMailSignature">Enviado do meu iPhone</div><div dir="ltr"> Início da mensagem encaminhada: </div><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr">De: Bruce Weaver <<a href="mailto:bweaver@lakeheadu.ca">bweaver@lakeheadu.ca</a>> Data: 22 de maio de 2020 09:47:20 BRT Para: MedStats <<a href="mailto:medstats@googlegroups.com">medstats@googlegroups.com</a>> Assunto: {MEDSTATS} Re: Covid-19 modelling Responder A: <a href="mailto:medstats@googlegroups.com">medstats@googlegroups.com</a> </div></blockquote><blockquote type="cite"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>Perhaps there is something to be learned from meteorologists, who rely very much on ensemble forecasts these days. I've not read all of it yet, but this set of notes appears to give a nice overview:</div><div><ul><li><a href="https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/node/2284">https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/node/2284</a></li></ul></div><div> </div> On Thursday, May 21, 2020 at 7:19:18 PM UTC-4, John Whittington wrote:<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0;margin-left: 0.8ex;border-left: 1px #ccc solid;padding-left: 1ex;">On Tuesday, May 19, 2020 at 9:33:49 AM UTC+1, <a target="_blank" gdf-obfuscated-mailto="94-o5xZjAgAJ" rel="nofollow">william...@gmail.com</a> wrote: >John, Good morning, great to see that your "normal" e-mail is "back >in town", and thank you for this reply. >Though my IT programming knowledge is rudimentary, i.e. I learnt >BASIC on Sir Clive Sinclair's ZX80, ZX81, and Spectrum at prep >school in Thanet 40 odd years ago, I do have a "basic" (ho, ho, ho) >question re these models in academic circles in Blighty and indeed >globally: how many other unis or "cutting edge" research centres are >performing modelling "on a par or better" than Imperial College's >please? Or does the latter have an effective "monopoly" or near >monopoly position? Surely competition is mandatory for optimal >research, discoveries, continuous improvements, quality, and >results? At least that's how gold medals are won at Olympic Games... It is, indeed - but in the case of the Olympic Games, there are established (and very simple to apply) ways of determining who should be awarded a gold medal. In the case of real-time modelling of a pandemic-in-progress, one cannot determine who is 'the winner' until 'after the event' (aka 'when it is too late'!). However, to partially answer your question, a Google search for "Covid-19" modelling (WITH the quotes) gets about 677,000 hits. If one adds 'UK' to the search terms, one still gets tens of thousands of hits. Whilst the majority of those hits are undoubtedly 'irrelevant', it is an indicator of how much modelling is going on. Countless ('cutting edge') universities and relevant organisations, both in the UK and throughout the world have been involved in modelling - so the short answer to your question is that there is plenty of potential competition, and certainly no 'monopoly' - but, as above, there is a grave problem in determining (in real-time') who is 'the winner' (or anywhere near being the winner), or even the 'best buy'! Both national governments (like the UK's) and globally (like the WHO) have expert advisory 'modelling groups' (e.g. a subgroup of SAGE) who draw their membership widely from throughout academia and relevant institutions/organisations. The modellers and modelling groups that one hears most about (like Ferguson/Imperial) are probably those who 'make the most noise'! Whilst I'm sure that a lot of the modelling can be criticised for one reason or another, as I said before I think it should be on the basis of the (implicit or explicit) assumptions/parameters, and perhaps the algorithms, not the programming language used. By analogy, if I had the ability (which I certainly don't!), I could write a PhD thesis about, say, a scientific topic, in Latin - but that, in itself, would in no way mean that there was necessarily anything wrong with the content, even if a modern-day scientist did not understand the language in which it was written (but perhaps criticised the work for that reason)! Kind Regards, John ---------------------------------------------------------------- Dr John Whittington, Voice: +44 (0) 1296 730225 Mediscience Services Fax: +44 (0) 1296 738893 Twyford Manor, Twyford, E-mail: <a target="_blank" gdf-obfuscated-mailto="94-o5xZjAgAJ" rel="nofollow">Jo...@mediscience.co.uk</a> Buckingham MK18 4EL, UK ---------------------------------------------------------------- </blockquote></div> -- -- To post a new thread to MedStats, send email to <a href="mailto:MedStats@googlegroups.com">MedStats@googlegroups.com</a> . MedStats' home page is <a href="http://groups.google.com/group/MedStats">http://groups.google.com/group/MedStats</a> . Rules: <a href="http://groups.google.com/group/MedStats/web/medstats-rules">http://groups.google.com/group/MedStats/web/medstats-rules</a> --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "MedStats" group. 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