<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr">Caros</div><div dir="ltr"><br></div><div>As previsões de hoje para os óbitos em SP pelo <a href="http://www.est.ufmg.br/covidlp">CovidLP</a> são:</div><div>Pico: 16/05, Int. Credibilidade 95% = (16/Maio, 10/Junho) </div><div>Total: 17.010,
Int. Credibilidade 95% = (14.759, 19.781)</div><div>Fim (99%): 10/10, Int. Credibilidade 95% = (11/09, 29/11)</div><div><br></div><div><div>Nossas previsões de hoje para os óbitos no Brasil são:</div><div>Pico: 07/06, Int. Credibilidade 95% = (28/Maio, 21/Junho) </div><div>Total: 91.612,
Int. Credibilidade 95% = (82.783, 100.626)</div><div>Fim (99%): 30/10, Int. Credibilidade 95% = (11/10, 21/11)</div><div><br></div><div>Abs</div><div>Dani</div></div><div> </div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">Em seg., 1 de jun. de 2020 às 00:52, Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira <<a href="mailto:cpereira@ime.usp.br">cpereira@ime.usp.br</a>> escreveu:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="589" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:442pt">
<colgroup><col width="105" span="2" style="width:79pt">
<col width="95" span="2" style="width:71pt">
<col width="94" style="width:71pt">
<col width="95" style="width:71pt">
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td colspan="2" height="22" width="210" style="border-width:1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black windowtext windowtext;height:16.5pt;width:158pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Modêlos Probabilísticos</td>
<td width="95" style="width:71pt;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Gamma</td>
<td width="95" style="border-left:none;width:71pt;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Weibull</td>
<td width="94" style="border-left:none;width:71pt;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">LogNormal</td>
<td width="95" style="border-left:none;width:71pt;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Mixture</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" style="height:48pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Pico</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Proporção</td>
<td style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;border:none;white-space:nowrap">36,79%</td>
<td style="color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">49,56%</td>
<td style="color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;border:none;white-space:nowrap">24,14%</td>
<td style="font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">44,15%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td height="21" style="height:15.75pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Data</td>
<td style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">28/5/20</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">25/5/20</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">6/6/20</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">26/5/20</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" style="height:16.5pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Óbitos</td>
<td style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.056</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">6.475</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.752</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">5.672</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td colspan="2" rowspan="2" height="43" width="210" style="border-width:1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black black windowtext;height:32.25pt;width:158pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt"> 7615 óbitos em 31/5/20 </td>
<td rowspan="2" style="border-width:1pt 0.5pt 1pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">39,70%</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="border-width:1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">58,29%</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="border-width:1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">21,00%</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="border-width:1pt 1pt 1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">50,40%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;height:48pt;border-top:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Final</td>
<td rowspan="2" width="105" style="border-top:none;width:79pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt">Final
de Óbitos</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">19.182</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">13.064</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">36.254</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">15.109</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td height="21" style="height:15.75pt;border-left:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">99,98%</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">100,00%</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">90,25%</td>
<td style="border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">99,61%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" style="height:16.5pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Data Final</td>
<td style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">28/2/21</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">31/7/20</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">28/2/21</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">28/2/21</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" width="105" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;height:48pt;width:79pt;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt">Previsão com dados do dia 31/5</td>
<td style="border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">1/6</td>
<td style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.801</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.801</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.804</td>
<td style="border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.801</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td height="21" style="height:15.75pt;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">2/6</td>
<td style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.986</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.985</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.994</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.986</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" style="height:16.5pt;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">3/6</td>
<td style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.170</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.168</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.183</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.169</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><br><div>O Gráfico correspondente: Notem que os picos de alguns modelos já ocorreram segundo os modelos usados. Será?</div><div>Um dos modelos mostra o final em julho enquanto os outros vão para 2021.Escolhi um dia para o final nos modelos,</div><div>excepto para o modelo Weibull que foi calculado. </div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><div><img src="cid:ii_kawwsl253" alt="image.png" width="472" height="254"><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div>
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</blockquote></div></div>