<div dir="ltr">Caro Hedi<div><br></div><div>As previsões do <a href="http://www.est.ufmg.br/covidlp">CovidLP</a> são para algumas dezenas de paises e para estados do Brasil. </div><div>Fazemos as previsões isoladamente para cada região.</div><div>Sistemas que incorporem proximidade entre paises/estados e mudanças em feriados/fins de semana </div><div>estão em nosso horizonte mas infelizmente ainda não foram incorporadas.</div><div><br></div><div>Abs</div><div>Dani</div><div><br></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">Em seg., 1 de jun. de 2020 às 17:17, Hedibert Lopes <<a href="mailto:hedibert@gmail.com">hedibert@gmail.com</a>> escreveu:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div>Boa tarde a todos,</div><div><br></div>Faco minhas as palavras do PLNS. Aqui em Sao Paulo (cidade) estamos oficialmente na fase laranja (segundo determinacao do governo estadual) enquanto TODOS os municipios vizinhos da Grande Sao Paulo estao na fase vermelha (loucos para serem promovidos para laranja). Alem disso, a prefeitura esta' estendendo ate' 15/6 a "fase vermelha". Esse estrutura e dinamica de vizinhanca, a ocupacao dos hospitais dessas cidades, e o fato de termos tido 6 dias consecutivos de "feriado" estao contemplados nesses modelos estatisticos? Aproveito e parabenizo DG e CABP ;)<div><div><br></div><div>Abs,</div><div>HFL</div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Jun 1, 2020 at 5:07 PM Pedro Luis do Nascimento Silva <<a href="mailto:pedronsilva@gmail.com" target="_blank">pedronsilva@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Caros colegas,</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Muito bom saber que temos tantos de vocês trabalhando em previsões dos números de casos e de óbitos. </div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Algo que eu gostaria de sugerir é que melhorassem as postagens nas seguintes direções:</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">1) tentar deixar claro nos cabeçalhos de tabelas a que geografia as estimativas se referem;</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">2) explicitar que os modelos em questão estão sendo usados para prever as séries de casos confirmados, tal como divulgado pelo MS; isto é diferente de prever os números totais da pandemia, como bem devem saber;</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">3) fornecer alguma referência sobre os métodos usados que possa ser consultada por quem quiser mais detalhes.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Num contexto como esse, qualificar a divulgação da informação é tão importante quanto qualificar as previsões feitas.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Forte abraço, e por favor, entendam os pedidos acima como contribuição ao aperfeiçoamento das postagens.</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">Pedro.</div><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br></font></div><div dir="ltr"><font face="verdana, sans-serif">Pedro Luis do Nascimento Silva</font><div><font face="verdana, sans-serif">IBGE - Escola Nacional de Ciências Estatísticas - </font><span style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">National School of Statistical Sciences</span></div><div><span style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif">SCIENCE - Sociedade para o Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa Científica - Secretário</span><br></div><div><font face="verdana, sans-serif">Phone: +55 21 994633376</font></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">Em seg., 1 de jun. de 2020 às 16:56, Dani Gamerman <<a href="mailto:dani@im.ufrj.br" target="_blank">dani@im.ufrj.br</a>> escreveu:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr">Caros</div><div dir="ltr"><br></div><div>As previsões de hoje para os óbitos em SP pelo <a href="http://www.est.ufmg.br/covidlp" target="_blank">CovidLP</a> são:</div><div>Pico: 16/05, Int. Credibilidade 95% = (16/Maio, 10/Junho) </div><div>Total: 17.010,
Int. Credibilidade 95% = (14.759, 19.781)</div><div>Fim (99%): 10/10, Int. Credibilidade 95% = (11/09, 29/11)</div><div><br></div><div><div>Nossas previsões de hoje para os óbitos no Brasil são:</div><div>Pico: 07/06, Int. Credibilidade 95% = (28/Maio, 21/Junho) </div><div>Total: 91.612,
Int. Credibilidade 95% = (82.783, 100.626)</div><div>Fim (99%): 30/10, Int. Credibilidade 95% = (11/10, 21/11)</div><div><br></div><div>Abs</div><div>Dani</div></div><div> </div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">Em seg., 1 de jun. de 2020 às 00:52, Carlos Alberto de Braganca Pereira <<a href="mailto:cpereira@ime.usp.br" target="_blank">cpereira@ime.usp.br</a>> escreveu:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="589" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:442pt">
<colgroup><col width="105" span="2" style="width:79pt">
<col width="95" span="2" style="width:71pt">
<col width="94" style="width:71pt">
<col width="95" style="width:71pt">
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td colspan="2" height="22" width="210" style="border-width:1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black windowtext windowtext;height:16.5pt;width:158pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Modêlos Probabilísticos</td>
<td width="95" style="width:71pt;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Gamma</td>
<td width="95" style="border-left:none;width:71pt;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Weibull</td>
<td width="94" style="border-left:none;width:71pt;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">LogNormal</td>
<td width="95" style="border-left:none;width:71pt;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Mixture</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" style="height:48pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Pico</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Proporção</td>
<td style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;border:none;white-space:nowrap">36,79%</td>
<td style="color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">49,56%</td>
<td style="color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;border:none;white-space:nowrap">24,14%</td>
<td style="font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">44,15%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td height="21" style="height:15.75pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Data</td>
<td style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">28/5/20</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">25/5/20</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">6/6/20</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">26/5/20</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" style="height:16.5pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Óbitos</td>
<td style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.056</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">6.475</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.752</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">5.672</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td colspan="2" rowspan="2" height="43" width="210" style="border-width:1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black black windowtext;height:32.25pt;width:158pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt"> 7615 óbitos em 31/5/20 </td>
<td rowspan="2" style="border-width:1pt 0.5pt 1pt 1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">39,70%</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="border-width:1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">58,29%</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="border-width:1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">21,00%</td>
<td rowspan="2" style="border-width:1pt 1pt 1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">50,40%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;height:48pt;border-top:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Final</td>
<td rowspan="2" width="105" style="border-top:none;width:79pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt">Final
de Óbitos</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">19.182</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">13.064</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">36.254</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">15.109</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td height="21" style="height:15.75pt;border-left:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">99,98%</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">100,00%</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">90,25%</td>
<td style="border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">99,61%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" style="height:16.5pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Data Final</td>
<td style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">28/2/21</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">31/7/20</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">28/2/21</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">28/2/21</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" width="105" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;height:48pt;width:79pt;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt">Previsão com dados do dia 31/5</td>
<td style="border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">1/6</td>
<td style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.801</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.801</td>
<td style="border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.804</td>
<td style="border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.801</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td height="21" style="height:15.75pt;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">2/6</td>
<td style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.986</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.985</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.994</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7.986</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" style="height:16.5pt;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">3/6</td>
<td style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.170</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.168</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.183</td>
<td style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8.169</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><br><div>O Gráfico correspondente: Notem que os picos de alguns modelos já ocorreram segundo os modelos usados. Será?</div><div>Um dos modelos mostra o final em julho enquanto os outros vão para 2021.Escolhi um dia para o final nos modelos,</div><div>excepto para o modelo Weibull que foi calculado. </div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><div><img src="cid:ii_kawwsl253" alt="image.png" width="472" height="254"><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div>
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</blockquote></div><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Hedibert Freitas Lopes, PhD</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Professor of Statistics and Econometrics</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">INSPER - Institute of Education and Research</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Rua Quatá, 300 - São Paulo, SP 04546-042 Brazil</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small">Phone: +55 11 4504-2343</span><br style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Color Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symbol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols;font-size:small"><a href="http://www.hedibert.org" target="_blank">www.hedibert.org</a></span><br></div></div>
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