<html><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body dir="auto"><div style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-style: solid none none; border-top-width: 1pt; border-top-color: rgb(181, 196, 223); padding: 3pt 0cm 0cm;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br></p></div><div align="center" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><div class="x-apple-transform-wrapper" style="height: 44.1875px;"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="0" style="transform-origin: 0px 0px; transform: scale(0.4855769230769231); width: 0px !important; height: 91px !important;"><tbody><tr style="height: 22.5pt;"><td valign="top" style="padding: 0cm; height: 22.5pt;"></td></tr><tr style="height: 23.25pt;"><td width="600" valign="top" style="width: 450pt; padding: 0cm; height: 23.25pt;"><div align="center"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="0" style="width: 405pt;"><tbody><tr><td width="146" style="width: 109.5pt; padding: 0cm;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><img border="0" width="87" height="31" id="Imagem_x0020_14" src="cid:56E6F9BF-C687-4E42-AF48-B71E5DD16B89" alt="Logo Insper" _mf_state="1" title="null" style="width: 0.9062in; height: 0.3229in;"><o:p></o:p></p></td><td width="394" style="width: 295.5pt; padding: 0cm;"><div align="center"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="width: 394px;"><tbody><tr style="height: 23.25pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 23.25pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 1pt;"><a href="https://www.insper.edu.br/cursos" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(123, 123, 123); text-decoration: none;">Nossos Cursos</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></p></td><td width="1" style="width: 0.75pt; padding: 0cm; height: 23.25pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 1pt;"><img border="0" width="1" height="15" id="Imagem_x0020_13" src="cid:745E8529-3B4E-49BE-82B3-A864B38E147B" alt="http://arquivos.insper.edu.br/template-email/institucional/images/div.jpg" _mf_state="1" title="null" style="width: 0.0104in; height: 0.1562in;"></span><o:p></o:p></p></td><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 23.25pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 1pt;"><a href="https://www.insper.edu.br/conhecimento/" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(123, 123, 123); text-decoration: none;">Pesquisa</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></p></td><td width="1" style="width: 0.75pt; padding: 0cm; height: 23.25pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 1pt;"><img border="0" width="1" height="15" id="Imagem_x0020_12" src="cid:200FA177-A34C-41ED-87CB-C0FAB8A3FA0F" alt="http://arquivos.insper.edu.br/template-email/institucional/images/div.jpg" style="width: 0.0104in; height: 0.1562in;"></span><o:p></o:p></p></td><td width="189" style="width: 5cm; padding: 0cm; height: 23.25pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 1pt;"><a href="https://www.insper.edu.br/transforme-com-o-insper/" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(123, 123, 123); text-decoration: none;">Transforme com o Insper</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr style="height: 22.5pt;"><td valign="top" style="padding: 0cm; height: 22.5pt;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 1pt;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p><div align="center" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><div class="x-apple-transform-wrapper" style="height: 551.6153846153846px;"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="0" style="background-color: white; transform-origin: 0px 0px; transform: scale(0.4855769230769231); width: 0px !important; height: 1135.78125px !important;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0cm;"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="width: 600px;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0cm;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><img border="0" width="600" height="181" id="Imagem_x0020_11" src="cid:36C64735-634B-42A6-899C-8B6389C903B8" alt="http://arquivos.insper.edu.br/2018/pesquisa/seminarios/imagem/seminarios-insper-4.jpg" _mf_state="1" title="null" style="width: 6.25in; height: 1.8854in;"><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0cm;"><div align="center"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="0" style="width: 405pt;"><tbody><tr style="height: 22.5pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 22.5pt;"></td></tr><tr style="height: 22.5pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 22.5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(192, 0, 38);">Ciência de Dados e Decisão</span></strong><br><br><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(192, 0, 38);">Seminários Acadêmicos</span><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr style="height: 22.5pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 22.5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-right: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Dynamical non-Gaussian modelling of spatial processes<strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"></span></strong></span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-right: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span></strong><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0cm;"><p style="margin-right: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><strong><span style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">Palestrante:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"> Profa. Viviana Lobo<br><strong>Universidade</strong></span><b>: </b><span style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"> </span><span style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by transforming the data. In this scenario, modelling the variance laws is an appealing alternative. This work adds flexibility to the usual Dynamical Gaussian model by defining the process as a scale mixture between a Gaussian and log-Gaussian process. The scale is represented by a process varying smoothly over space and time. State-space equations define the dynamics over time for both response and variance processes resulting in computationally efficient estimation and prediction algorithms. Analysis of artificial datasets show that the parameters are identifiable and simpler models are well recovered by the general proposed model. An application to maximum temperature data illustrates the effectiveness of our proposal in modelling varying variances over time and space.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"> </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">Jointly with Thais C. O. Fonseca and Alexandra M. Schmidt.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-right: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><strong><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span></strong><o:p></o:p></p><p style="margin-right: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">#SomosInsper</span></strong><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr style="height: 22.5pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 22.5pt;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span><o:p></o:p></p><div align="center"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="0" style="width: 405pt;"><tbody><tr style="height: 22.5pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 22.5pt;"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="0" style="width: 322.7pt;"><tbody><tr style="height: 29.1pt;"><td width="39" style="width: 28.95pt; padding: 0cm; height: 29.1pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><img border="0" width="21" height="22" id="Imagem_x0020_10" src="cid:B7BACEF5-E618-4B5B-9D79-7F4C209F2339" alt="Ícone Data" _mf_state="1" title="null" style="width: 0.2187in; height: 0.2291in;"><o:p></o:p></p></td><td width="392" style="width: 293.7pt; padding: 0cm; height: 29.1pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">04<span style="color: black;">/junho/2020</span></span><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr style="height: 29.1pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 29.1pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><img border="0" width="21" height="21" id="Imagem_x0020_9" src="cid:0C0D86CE-F106-4CFE-85C5-F100E959ABF0" alt="Ícone Hora" _mf_state="1" title="null" style="width: 0.2187in; height: 0.2187in;"><o:p></o:p></p></td><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 29.1pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><strong><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: black; font-weight: normal;"><a href="x-apple-data-detectors://14" dir="ltr" x-apple-data-detectors="true" x-apple-data-detectors-type="calendar-event" x-apple-data-detectors-result="14" style="color: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: rgba(128, 128, 128, 0.38);">12</a></span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-weight: normal;"><a href="x-apple-data-detectors://14" dir="ltr" x-apple-data-detectors="true" x-apple-data-detectors-type="calendar-event" x-apple-data-detectors-result="14" style="color: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: rgba(128, 128, 128, 0.38);">h</a><span style="color: black;"> de São Paulo, Brasil (UTC/GMT -<a href="x-apple-data-detectors://15" dir="ltr" x-apple-data-detectors="true" x-apple-data-detectors-type="calendar-event" x-apple-data-detectors-result="15" style="color: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: rgba(128, 128, 128, 0.38);">03:00</a>)</span></span></strong><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr style="height: 29.1pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 29.1pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><img border="0" width="21" height="21" id="Imagem_x0020_8" src="cid:93FB497D-8A1D-4FC8-8871-5A82E6C89127" alt="Ícone Hora" style="width: 0.2187in; height: 0.2187in;"><o:p></o:p></p></td><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 29.1pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><strong><span style="font-size: 10.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(31, 73, 125); font-weight: normal;"><a href="https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_YTYxYjllNDYtMDZiNy00NzRhLWFkYTctMWFjMjU4YWUyN2Q3%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%229e2f1485-3e53-4662-b1de-0c2bcb66d447%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22b7ac2332-75f3-4a8d-af0c-308a8e410083%22%7d" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);">Clique aqui para participar</a></span></strong><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr><tr style="height: 14.55pt;"><td colspan="2" style="padding: 0cm; height: 14.55pt;"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr style="height: 22.5pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 22.5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 12pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 11.5pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(51, 51, 51);">Veja <a href="https://www.insper.edu.br/pesquisa-e-conhecimento/seminarios-academicos/" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);"><strong><span style="color: blue;">aqui</span></strong></a> os próximos seminários.</span><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr style="height: 15pt;"><td style="padding: 0cm; height: 15pt;"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 0cm;"><div align="center"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="0" style="width: 405pt;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 0cm;"><div align="center"><table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="width: 540px;"><tbody><tr style="height: 25.5pt;"><td width="33" style="width: 24.75pt; padding: 0cm; height: 25.5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 1pt;"><img border="0" width="24" height="35" id="Imagem_x0020_7" src="cid:80D75665-CFB9-46A2-A61A-902E70296F7B" alt="Ícone local" _mf_state="1" title="null" style="width: 0.25in; height: 0.3645in;"></span><o:p></o:p></p></td><td width="203" style="width: 152.25pt; padding: 0cm; height: 25.5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(123, 123, 123);"><a href="x-apple-data-detectors://16" dir="ltr" x-apple-data-detectors="true" x-apple-data-detectors-type="address" x-apple-data-detectors-result="16" style="color: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: rgba(128, 128, 128, 0.38);">Rua Quatá, 300 - Vila Olímpia</a><br><a href="x-apple-data-detectors://16" dir="ltr" x-apple-data-detectors="true" x-apple-data-detectors-type="address" x-apple-data-detectors-result="16" style="color: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: rgba(128, 128, 128, 0.38);">São Paulo</a>/SP - CEP: <a href="tel:04546-042" dir="ltr" x-apple-data-detectors="true" x-apple-data-detectors-type="telephone" x-apple-data-detectors-result="17" style="color: currentcolor;">04546-042</a></span><o:p></o:p></p></td><td width="41" style="width: 30.75pt; padding: 0cm; height: 25.5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 1pt;"><img border="0" width="35" height="35" id="Imagem_x0020_6" src="cid:7C42AC6B-E42F-4A5E-A817-B38D0BAE0CD6" alt="Ícone Telefone" _mf_state="1" title="null" style="width: 0.3645in; height: 0.3645in;"></span><o:p></o:p></p></td><td width="263" style="width: 197.25pt; padding: 0cm; height: 25.5pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; color: rgb(123, 123, 123);"><a href="tel:(11)%204504-2400" dir="ltr" x-apple-data-detectors="true" x-apple-data-detectors-type="telephone" x-apple-data-detectors-result="18" style="color: currentcolor;">(11) 4504-2400</a><br><a href="mailto:seminariosacademicos@insper.edu.brsubject=Contato" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114);"><span style="color: rgb(242, 85, 96);">seminariosacademicos@insper.edu.br</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> </p><br><div dir="ltr">Sent from Hedibert's iPhone</div></body></html>