<div dir="ltr">Caros colegas e redistas<div>Fiz hoje mais um exercício de predições com base apenas nos números divulgados e usando distribuições de probabilidades.</div><div>Novamente eu explico a ingenuidade do formato.</div><div>Pego os dados dos óbitos até o dia de hoje. Divido todos pelo observado até o dia de hoje (acumulados). Tenho assim uma função de distribuição condicionada ao tempo de mortalidade (HOJE). Procuro usando a distribuição condicional de modelos estatísticos a que fica mais perto daquela função dos dados.</div><div>Ao encontrar os parâmetros da distribuição que está mais perto (distância composicional de Aitchison) da distribuição condicional dos dados. Procuro a moda para obter o pico e depois procuro o tempo onde a densidade chega a zero ou a função de distribuição chega a um e defino assim o final. As projeções são baseadas nas densidades dos modelos. Não considerem a distribuição Log Normal, pois não consigo que fique próxima dos dados tanto quando as outras duas, Gamma e Weibull. Uso o valor das duas distâncias para obter uma densidade meta-analítica (uma mistura de densidades).</div><div>Os resultados estão na tabela abaixo coloquei a Log Normal para comparações de desempenho apenas.</div><div>Vão perceber que a loucura dos dados não permitem uma perfeita performance dos modelos.</div><div><br></div><div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="594" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:447pt">
<colgroup><col width="97" style="width:73pt">
<col width="136" style="width:102pt">
<col width="89" span="2" style="width:67pt">
<col width="94" style="width:71pt">
<col width="89" style="width:67pt">
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td colspan="2" height="22" class="gmail-xl118" width="233" style="border-width:1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black windowtext windowtext;height:16.5pt;width:175pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Modêlos Probabilísticos</td>
<td class="gmail-xl63" width="89" style="width:67pt;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Gamma</td>
<td class="gmail-xl64" width="89" style="border-left:none;width:67pt;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Weibull</td>
<td class="gmail-xl65" width="94" style="border-left:none;width:71pt;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">LogNormal</td>
<td class="gmail-xl66" width="89" style="border-left:none;width:67pt;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Mixture</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" class="gmail-xl120" style="height:48pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Pico</td>
<td class="gmail-xl67" style="border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Proporção</td>
<td class="gmail-xl68" style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;border:none;white-space:nowrap">37,52%</td>
<td class="gmail-xl69" style="color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">50,65%</td>
<td class="gmail-xl70" style="color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;border:none;white-space:nowrap">35,10%</td>
<td class="gmail-xl71" style="font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">48,53%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td height="21" class="gmail-xl72" style="height:15.75pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Data</td>
<td class="gmail-xl73" style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">20/6/20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl74" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">9/6/20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl75" style="border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">23/5/20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl76" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">10/6/20</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" class="gmail-xl77" style="height:16.5pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Óbitos</td>
<td class="gmail-xl78" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">51.543</td>
<td class="gmail-xl79" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">42.670</td>
<td class="gmail-xl80" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">23.723</td>
<td class="gmail-xl81" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">40.247</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td colspan="2" rowspan="2" height="43" class="gmail-xl122" width="233" style="border-width:1pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext black black windowtext;height:32.25pt;width:175pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt"> 35033
Óbitos em 5/6/20 </td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl126" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-top:1pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">25,51%</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl128" style="border-width:1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">45,28%</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl116" style="border-width:1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">51,83%</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl101" style="border-width:1pt 1pt 1pt 0.5pt;border-style:solid;border-color:windowtext windowtext black;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">42,24%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" class="gmail-xl103" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;height:48pt;border-top:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">Final</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl106" width="136" style="border-top:none;width:102pt;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt">Final
dos óbitos</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl108" style="border-bottom:0.5pt solid black;border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">137.341</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl110" style="border-bottom:0.5pt solid black;border-top:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">77.352</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl112" style="border-bottom:0.5pt solid black;border-top:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">67.585</td>
<td rowspan="2" class="gmail-xl114" style="border-bottom:0.5pt solid black;border-top:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;vertical-align:middle;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;white-space:nowrap">82.916</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" class="gmail-xl82" style="height:16.5pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;color:windowtext;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">Data Final</td>
<td class="gmail-xl83" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">4/3/21</td>
<td class="gmail-xl84" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">16/9/20</td>
<td class="gmail-xl85" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">26/2/21</td>
<td class="gmail-xl86" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7/3/21</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td rowspan="3" height="64" class="gmail-xl98" width="97" style="border-bottom:1pt solid black;height:48pt;width:73pt;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom">Previsão com dados do dia 5/6</td>
<td class="gmail-xl87" style="border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:none;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">6/6</td>
<td class="gmail-xl88" style="color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">36.100</td>
<td class="gmail-xl89" style="border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">36.068</td>
<td class="gmail-xl90" style="border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">35.843</td>
<td class="gmail-xl91" style="border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-top:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">36.071</td>
</tr>
<tr height="21" style="height:15.75pt">
<td height="21" class="gmail-xl92" style="height:15.75pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">7/6</td>
<td class="gmail-xl88" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">37.174</td>
<td class="gmail-xl89" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">37.107</td>
<td class="gmail-xl90" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">36.641</td>
<td class="gmail-xl91" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:0.5pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">37.113</td>
</tr>
<tr height="22" style="height:16.5pt">
<td height="22" class="gmail-xl93" style="height:16.5pt;border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">8/6</td>
<td class="gmail-xl94" style="border-top:none;color:rgb(84,130,53);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;border-left:none;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">38.254</td>
<td class="gmail-xl95" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:red;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">38.147</td>
<td class="gmail-xl96" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;color:rgb(112,48,160);font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:0.5pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">37.427</td>
<td class="gmail-xl97" style="border-top:none;border-left:none;font-weight:700;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;text-align:center;border-right:1pt solid windowtext;border-bottom:1pt solid windowtext;padding-top:1px;padding-right:1px;padding-left:1px;color:black;font-size:12pt;vertical-align:bottom;white-space:nowrap">38.157</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div><br></div><div>As 3 densidades que considero razoáveis estão no gráfico e o estudo das aproximações podem ser imaginados olhando os dois outros gráficos.</div><div><br></div><div><div><img src="cid:ii_kb32ei7k0" alt="image.png" width="472" height="260"><br></div></div><div><div><img src="cid:ii_kb32fiec1" alt="image.png" width="472" height="283"><br></div></div><div><br></div><div><div><img src="cid:ii_kb32gziy2" alt="image.png" width="472" height="283"><br></div></div><div><br></div><div>Carlinhos</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div>