<div dir="ltr"><p style="line-height:150%;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;margin-right:0cm;margin-left:0cm;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;color:black">Prezados,</span><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"></span></p>
<p style="line-height:150%;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;margin-right:0cm;margin-left:0cm;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif;color:black">Temos o prazer de convidar a
todos para participação no terceiro seminário do Ciclo de Seminários 2020 do
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística da UFRGS (PPGEst-UFRGS). Informações abaixo: </span><span style="font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Evento:</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%"> Ciclo de Seminários 2020 do PPGEst-UFRGS </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Palestrante: </span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Prof. Dr. Marcelo Bourguignon Pereira (UFRN)<b></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Título:</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">
Modeling count time series with equidispersion, underdispersion or
overdispersion </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Resumo:</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">
We present a novel first-order nonnegative integer-valued autoregressive model
for stationary count data processes with Bernoulli-geometric marginals based on
a new type of generalized thinning operator. It can be used for modeling time
series of counts with equidispersion, underdispersion and overdispersion. The
main properties of the model are derived, such as probability generating
function, moments, transition probabilities and zero probability. The maximum
likelihood method is used for estimating the model parameters. The proposed model
is fitted to time series of counts of iceberg orders and of cases of family
violence illustrating its capabilities in challenging cases of overdispersed
and equidispersed count data.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Data: 13 de julho de 2020 (segunda-feira)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Horário: </span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">14h00
às 15:20 (1 hora de apresentação e 20 min para perguntas)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Local:
</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Ambiente virtual Mconf<b> </b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">(Acesso pelo link <span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial"> </span></span><a href="https://mconf.ufrgs.br/webconf/00040710" target="_blank" style="color:blue"><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">https://mconf.ufrgs.br/webconf/00040710</span></a><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%;color:rgb(51,51,51);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">) </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Moderador:</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%"> Prof. Dr. Danilo Marcondes Filho</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%"><br></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">OBS 1:</span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">
Após o acesso pelo link acima a participação na reunião será autorizada pelo
moderador por ordem de acesso. O sistema permite um limite de 60
participantes. Os participantes externos
à UFRGS deverão acessar a reunião através da opção “convidados”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">OBS 2: </span></b><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">A agenda de seminários pode ser
acessada em<b> </b></span><a href="https://www.ufrgs.br/ppgest/seminarios/" style="color:blue">https://www.ufrgs.br/ppgest/seminarios/</a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%"><br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">Contamos com a presença de todos.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:150%;margin:0cm 0cm 8pt;font-size:11pt;font-family:Calibri,sans-serif"><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%">PPGEst-UFRGS</span></p><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><br><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><font color="#999999" face="times new roman, serif" style="font-size:small">Danilo Marcondes Filho</font><div style="font-size:small"><font color="#999999" face="times new roman, serif">Department of Statistics<br>Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)</font></div><div style="font-size:small"><font color="#999999" face="times new roman, serif"><br>Av. Bento Gonçalves, 9500 - Prédio 43-111 - Agronomia<br>91509-900 Porto Alegre - RS - BRAZIL<br>Tel: <a href="tel:+55%2051%203308-7301" value="+555133087301" style="color:rgb(17,85,204)" target="_blank">+</a><a href="tel:+55%2051%203308-6194" value="+555133086194" style="color:rgb(17,85,204)" target="_blank">55 51 3308 62</a><a href="tel:+55%2051%203308-6194" value="+555133086194" style="color:rgb(17,85,204)" target="_blank">14</a> <a href="tel:+55%2051%203308-6194" value="+555133086194" style="color:rgb(17,85,204)" target="_blank">/</a> <a href="tel:+55%2051%203308-7301" value="+555133087301" style="color:rgb(17,85,204)" target="_blank">+</a><a href="tel:+55%2051%203308-6194" value="+555133086194" style="color:rgb(17,85,204)" target="_blank">55 51 999622276</a></font></div><div><br></div></div></div></div></div><div><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div id="DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br> <table style="border-top:1px solid #d3d4de">
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