<div dir="ltr">Menagem retificando data do seminário: <div><p style="line-height:150%;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;margin-right:0cm;margin-left:0cm;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Prezados,<p style="line-height:150%;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;margin-right:0cm;margin-left:0cm;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Temos o prazer de convidar a todos para participação no quinto seminário do “Ciclo de Seminários 2020 do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística da UFRGS (PPGEst-UFRGS). Informações abaixo: <p style="line-height:150%;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;margin-right:0cm;margin-left:0cm;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> Evento: Ciclo de Seminários 2020 do PPGEst-UFRGS Palestrante: Prof. Dr. Marcelo Fernandes (FGV) Título: A semiparametric double-stochastic SIRD model with time-varying parameters Resumo: We propose a semiparametric approach to estimate a stochastic SIRD model with time-varying parameters. We do not impose any restriction on daily transmission, recovering and mortality rates, instead using a fully nonparametric specification for their dynamics over time. To do so, we estimate the time-dependent SIRD model by kernel (constrained) least squares. We also entertain a multivariate extension to accommodate transmission across groups. Empirically, we estimate SIRD models for the COVID-19 cases and deaths in New York City. The results are very interesting unveiling a strong pattern of transmission across boroughs and age groups. This is joint work with José Antunes, Thiago Milagres and Alvaro Veiga Data: 27 de julho de 2020 (segunda-feira) Horário: 14h00 às 15:20 (1 hora de apresentação e 20 min para perguntas) Local: Ambiente virtual Mconf (Acesso pelo link <a href="https://mconf.ufrgs.br/webconf/00040710" target="_blank" style="color:blue"><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%;color:rgb(17,85,204);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">https://mconf.ufrgs.br/webconf/00040710</a><span style="font-size:12pt;line-height:150%;color:rgb(51,51,51);background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial">) Moderador: Prof. Dr. Eduardo de Oliveira Horta OBS 1: Após o acesso pelo link acima a participação na reunião será autorizada pelo moderador por ordem de acesso. O sistema permite um limite de 60 participantes. Os participantes externos à UFRGS deverão acessar a reunião através da opção “convidados”. OBS 2: A agenda de seminários pode ser acessada em <a href="https://www.ufrgs.br/ppgest/seminarios/" style="color:blue">https://www.ufrgs.br/ppgest/seminarios/</a> OBS 3: Abaixo os links para acessar as palestras anteriores autorizadas: Seminário 1 (Profa. Dra. Taiane Schaedler Prass, UFRGS) Link: <a href="https://youtu.be/_-DGDNepTno" target="_blank" style="color:blue">https://youtu.be/_-DGDNepTno</a> Seminário 3 (Prof. Dr. Marcelo Bourguignon Pereira, UFRN) Link: <a href="https://youtu.be/lYqEw_VZqV4" target="_blank" style="color:blue">https://youtu.be/lYqEw_VZqV4</a> Seminário 4 (Prof. Dr. Hedibert Freitas Lopes, Insper) Link: <a href="https://youtu.be/8PYG89fD8jQ" target="_blank" style="color:blue">https://youtu.be/8PYG89fD8jQ</a> Contamos com a presença de todos. PPGEst-UFRGS</div>-- <div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div> <div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr">Danilo Marcondes Filho<div style="font-size:small">Department of Statistics Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)</div><div style="font-size:small"> Av. 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