[ABE-L] Amostragem probabilistica existe?

[Andre Maia]

Muito bom, Neale!

*“Probability samples are based on everyone’s having a known chance of
being included in the sample. And we never know this probability”.*

Quanta discussão cabe aqui.

Abraço,

André Maia.



2015-09-01 9:59 GMT-03:00 Neale El-Dash <neale.eldash em gmail.com>:

> Segue um artigo do Gelman publicado no Washington Post sobre pesquisas
> eleitorais. O comeco do artigo discute alguns detalhes metodologicos sobre
> pesquisas telefonicas/online feitas nos EUA. Mas o final vale pra qualquer
> lugar, qualquer metodologia. Segue um paragrafo que eu gosto bastante, e
> resume tambem minha opiniao sobre o assunto:
>
> "In real life there are no probability samples of humans. With survey
> response rates below 10 percent, there is no way to know the probability of
> an individual being included in the sample. You can know the probability
> that the survey organization will *try* to reach a person — that’s easy,
> it just depends on exactly how the address or telephone number or e-mail is
> sampled from a given list. But it’s impossible to know the probability that
> this person will actually be included in the sample, as this depends on the
> probability that the person is reached, multiplied by the probability that
> he or she agrees to respond, given that he or she is reached. And neither
> of these two probabilities is ever known"
>
> Link para o artigo:
>
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/31/heres-why-you-should-worry-about-the-polls-for-the-2016-u-s-elections-and-beyond/
>
> --
>
> Knowledge is only part of understanding. Genuine understanding comes from
> hands-on experience.
> (Seymour Papert)
>
> -----------------------------------------------
> Neale Ahmed El-Dash
> Doutor em Estatística
> Celular: +55 19 998893939
> Email: neale.eldash em gmail.com
>
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