[ABE-L] Seminarios PIPGEs

[Ricardo Sandes Ehlers]

Caros redistas,

Seguem informações sobre o próximo seminário do PIPGEs UFSCar/USP dia 29/9,
sexta-feira às 14h.

A continuous spatio-temporal approach to estimate climate change

Marcio Poletti Laurini (FEARP/USP)

    We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal
components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the
existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method
incorporates critical features in the analysis of climatic problems - the
importance of spatial heterogeneity, information from a large number of
weather stations, and the presence of missing data. The spatial component
is based on continuous projections of spatial covariance functions,
allowing modeling the complex patterns of dependence observed in climatic
data.
    We apply this method to study climate changes in the Northeast region
of Brazil, characterized by a great wealth of climates and large amplitudes
of temperatures and rainfall. The results show the presence of a tendency
for temperature increases, indicating changes in the climatic patterns in
this region.
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