[ABE-L] Seminários de Pós-graduação PPGE-UFPE: Edneide Ramalho - LIKA/UFPE (15/07 - 16h00) x

['Pablo Martin Rodriguez' via abe-l@ime.usp.br]

Bom dia para todos(as),

Segue a informação do seminário que teremos na próxima semana no Ciclo de
Seminários de Pós-graduação PPGE-UFPE. A agenda completa de seminários
confirmados para 2020 pode ser acessada pelo site:
https://sites.google.com/view/seminarios-ppge-ufpe.

Próxima palestra - 15/07 (16h00) (transmissão online via *Google Meet
*pelo link:
meet.google.com/icc-kckb-xrs):

*Título:* Using Mathematical Models to Simulate Disease Spread: Testing
Control Strategies For Chagas Disease.

*Palestrante:* Edneide Ramalho - LIKA/UFPE.

*Resumo:*  Chagas disease is one of the 20 Neglected Tropical Diseases,
being an important health care problem mainly in Latin America. Although
Brazil has received the certificate of elimination of vector transmission
due to T. infestans in 2006, other species still representing a risk of
house invasion, domiciliation, and infection. In a multidisciplinary
collaboration, mathematical models can be used as an important tool to
assess different aspects of the infection dynamics. The model aim is to
evaluate and quantify the effect of combined control strategies for
transmission reduction. In order to do so, different categories of models
can be applied, as compartmental, individual-based, transmission dynamic,
static, network and so on. A compartmental model was chosen to simulate
Chagas disease transmission considering human, triatomine bugs (the
disease’s vector), non-competent hosts (like chickens and turkeys, which
are not involved in the infection process but are food source for the
disease vector), and competent animals (such as domestic mammals, pigs,
horses, cattle, etc. which are all part of infection process). Each one of
the considered individuals can either be susceptible or infected. A system
of differential equations representing the infection dynamics is
numerically simulated, after the appropriate assignment for the values in
the model’s parameters. In the numerical simulations, different scenarios
regard control strategies were tested providing the proportion of infected
individuals over time, in addition to the number of new cases. When applied
in combination, control strategies can significantly reduce the number of
new cases, nevertheless, even if they are applied for a long time and
reduction reaches very low levels, once they stop, the number of new cases,
and thus the proportion of infected individuals increase rapidly. As we can
notice, mathematical models can be used to test and optimize control
strategies in disease spread, as well as to help in decision-making process
in health policies. The model shows that Chagas disease is persistent in
time, thus in addition to improvement and maintenance of control
strategies, treatment is indispensable.

*Sobre a palestrante:* Atualmente realiza estágio pós-doutoral na UFPE em
parceria com o CIn (Centro de Informática) e o LIKA (Laboratório de
Imunopatologia Keizo Asami). Tem graduação em Licenciatura Plena em Física
pela Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (2013), mestrado em Biometria
e Estatística Aplicada pela Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (2015)
e doutorado em Biometria e Estatística Aplicada pela Universidade Federal
Rural de Pernambuco (2019), com estágio doutoral de um ano na Universitat
Politècnica da Catulunya - BarcelonaTech. Tem experiência na área de
Probabilidade e Estatística aplicada, com ênfase em análise de dados em
ciências da saúde, e programação em R e Pyhton. Tem interesse em modelagem
e simulação de sistemas biológicos, com ênfase em espalhamento de
enfermidades e epidemiologia. (Fonte: Currículo Lattes).

Estão todos(as) convidados(as)!

Um abraço
Pablo Rodriguez
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