[ABE-L] Predicting COVID-19 Peaks Around the World

[Andre Maia]

Predicting COVID-19 Peaks Around the World
<https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2020.00217/full>

The official data for the time evolution of active cases of COVID-19
pandemics around the world are available online. For all countries, a peak
has been either observed (China and South Korea) or is expected in the near
future. The approximate dates and heights of those peaks have important
epidemiological implications. Inspired by similar complex behavior of
volumes of transactions of stocks at the NYSE and NASDAQ, we propose a
*q*-statistical
functional form that appears to describe satisfactorily the available data
for all countries. Consistently, predictions of the dates and heights of
those peaks in severely affected countries become possible unless efficient
treatments or vaccines, or sensible modifications of the adopted
epidemiological strategies, emerge.
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