[ABE-L] Seminário conjunto UFSCar/USP - 27/11/2020 às 14h00

[PIPGEs UFSCar]

Prezados (as), muito boa tarde!

Espero que estejam todos bem. Conforme solicitado pelo Prof. Sandro Gallo,
venho por meio deste convidá-los para o seminário desta sexta-feira (27/11):

*Seminário Conjunto UFSCar/USP*

*Data e horário:*
27/11/2020 às 14h

*Local:*
Google Meet - Link da apresentação será disponibilizado até uma hora antes
da palestra neste link
<http://www.pipges.ufscar.br/seminarios/27-11-2020-seminario-palestrante-raphael-nishimura-university-of-michigan>
.

*Título:*
Errors is election polls

*Palestrante:*
Raphael Nishimura (University of Michigan)

*Resumo:*

Election polling poses a unique applied statistical challenge as it is one
of the very few situations in which the finite population parameters are
known at some point briefly after the estimation occurs. In recent years,
election polls have been put into question given their performance in major
elections, such as the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections. Understanding what
went wrong and finding solutions for their problems is of utmost importance
for the survival of this important tool in democracies around the world.

Statisticians are generally trained to account for sampling errors in
surveys, but there are other sources of error that can have a larger impact
on the quality of the survey estimates. The Total Survey Error (TSE)
provides a good framework to understand these sources of error and how to
address them through design or statistical adjustments. In this
presentation, I will review the different sources of errors in election
polls from a TSE perspective and present a few case-studies from past
election polls to understand how these errors impacted their results.

Contamos com a presença de todos(as)!

Lembramos também que todos os seminários e outras atividades previstas
encontram-se na página do PIPGEs (link <http://www.pipges.ufscar.br/>)

Atenciosamente,
--
Julio Cezar de Barros
Assistente em Administração
PIPGEs-UFSCar
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