[ABE-L] Convite: Seminário DEST/UFMG em 23/07/2021.

[Vinicius Mayrink]

Caros,

Na próxima sexta-feira (*23 de julho, às 13:30h*) o ciclo de
Seminários do *Departamento
de Estatística da UFMG* terá a apresentação de *Leonardo Soares Bastos*.

Leonardo é Doutor em Estatística pela University of Sheffield e,
atualmente, pesquisador da Fiocruz (Rio de Janeiro) desenvolvendo métodos
Bayesianos aplicados à epidemiologia de doenças transmissíveis. Tem
experiência em modelagem hierárquica Bayesiana, computação Bayesiana e
modelagem espaço-temporal.

O seminário será transmitido ao vivo pelo canal do Youtube "*Seminários
DEST - UFMG <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoZC2_pME9ca_-Hx4djd60w>*".

Att,
Vinícius Mayrink

*********** Título e Resumo ***********

Leonardo Soares Bastos (Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro)

*Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths and hospitalized cases in Brazil.*

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic continues to cause a massive
burden in the world, especially in countries such as Brazil, with poor
implementation of strategies to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
The number of cases, severe cases, and deaths by COVID-19 are important
indicators of how the COVID-19 epidemic is affecting a particular region
and can be used by decision-makers to act in order to reduce morbidity and
mortality. However, a common problem with surveillance data is reporting
delays, whereby cases and deaths are recorded in the surveillance system
days or even weeks after they occurred. Statistical models can estimate the
actual number of cases, severe cases, and deaths by COVID-19 accounting for
the delays (nowcasting). We proposed a Bayesian hierarchical model to
nowcast deaths and hospitalised cases for Brazil and also for the 27
federal units. Finally, we provide some general discussion about the
COVID-19 situation in Brazil.

-- 
*Vinícius D. Mayrink*
*Professor Associado - Departamento de Estatística*

*ICEx, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais*
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