[ABE-L] Ciclo de Palestras PPG Estatística UFRJ (Raphael Nishimura - 03/03 às 15:30)

[Kelly Cristina]

Prezados,

dando continuidade ao Ciclo de Palestras do Programa de Pós-Graduação
em Estatística do IM-UFRJ, *na próxima 4a feira, 10/03/21, às 15:30*,
teremos a palestra da professora do pesquisador:

*Raphael Nishimura (University of Michigan)*

*Título: *Errors in election polls

*Resumo: *Election polling poses a unique applied statistical challenge as
it is one of the very few situations in which the finite population
parameters are known at some point briefly after the estimation occurs. In
recent years, election polls have been put into question given their
performance in major elections, such as the 2016 U.S. Presidential
Elections. Understanding what went wrong and finding solutions for their
problems is of utmost importance for the survival of this important tool in
democracies around the world. Statisticians are generally trained to
account for sampling errors in surveys, but there are other sources of
error that can have a larger impact on the quality of the survey estimates.
The Total Survey Error (TSE) provides a good framework to understand these
sources of error and how to address them through design or statistical
adjustments. In this presentation, I will review the different sources of
errors in election polls from a TSE perspective and present a few
case-studies from past election polls to
understand how these errors impacted their results.

A palestra ocorrerá remotamente, via Google Meets. Segue o* link para o
acesso* a sala (atenção link novo): https://meet.google.com/efq-mzpm-hev
<http://meet.google.com/efq-mzpm-hev> . A sala será aberta sempre 10
minutos antes do início de cada sessão.

Contamos com a presença de vocês.
Acompanhem a atualização da programação do nosso ciclo de palestras no
site  http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3037. Para ver palestras anteriores,
se inscreva no nosso canal Ciclo de Palestras Estatística UFRJ
<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoLTqHW20Ne1qFYL2xYJOcg/featured>!

Atenciosamente,

-- 
*Kelly C. M. Gonçalves*
*Professora Adjunta IV*
*Departamento de Métodos Estatísticos*
*Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro*
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