[ABE-L] Convite: Seminário DEST/UFMG em 12/11/2021.

[Vinicius Mayrink]

Caros,

Na próxima sexta-feira (*12 de novembro*, às *13:30h*) o ciclo de
Seminários do *Departamento de Estatística da UFMG* terá a
apresentação de *João
Batista M. Pereira*.

João é professor do Departamento de Métodos Estatísticos da UFRJ e obteve o
grau de Doutor em Estatística pela UFRJ (com período sanduíche na
University of California - Santa Cruz, EUA). Suas principais áreas de
pesquisa são: Inferência Bayesiana, Modelos espaço-temporais, Modelos
dinâmicos e Métodos estatísticos computacionais.

O seminário será transmitido ao vivo pelo canal do Youtube "*Seminários
DEST - UFMG <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoZC2_pME9ca_-Hx4djd60w>*".

Att,
Vinícius Mayrink

*********** Título e Resumo ***********

João Batista de Morais Pereira (DME, UFRJ)

*Spatial confounding in hurdle multilevel beta models: the case of the
Brazilian Mathematical Olympics for Public Schools.*

Among the many disparities for which Brazil is known is the difference in
performance across students who attend the three administrative levels of
Brazilian public schools: federal, state and municipal. Our main goal is to
investigate whether student performance in the Brazilian Mathematical
Olympics for Public Schools is associated with school administrative level
and student gender. For this, we propose a hurdle hierarchical beta model
for the scores of students who took the examination in the second phase of
these Olympics, in 2013. The mean of the beta model incorporates fixed and
random effects at the student and school levels. We explore different
distributions for the random school effect. As the posterior distributions
of some fixed effects change in the presence, and distribution, of the
random school effects, we also explore models that constrain random school
effects to the orthogonal complement of the fixed effects. We conclude that
male students perform slightly better than female students and that, on
average, federal schools perform substantially better than state or
municipal schools. However, some of the best municipal and state schools
perform as well as some federal schools. We hypothesize that this is due to
individual teachers who successfully motivate and prepare their students to
perform well in the mathematical Olympics. Joint work with Widemberg Nobre,
Igor Silva and Alexandra Schmidt.

-- 
*Vinícius D. Mayrink*
*Professor Associado - Departamento de Estatística*

*ICEx, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais*
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