[ABE-L] Seminários do Papos Aleatórios - 12/07/2022

[Patricia Lusie]

Boa noite!

Dando continuidade aos seminários do Papos Aleatórios, amanhã, 12/07, às
16h, receberemos a pesquisadora do IBGE Luna Hidalgo Carneiro.

*Título:* Model-based single-month unemployment rate estimates for the
Brazilian Labour Force Survey

*Resumo:* The Brazilian Labour Force Survey (BLFS) is a quarterly rotating
panel survey with 80% sample overlap between two successive quarters.
Monthly unemployment rate estimates are regularly produced based on a
three-month average of direct estimates. Due to the unforeseen situation of
COVID19 pandemic and its effects in the economy and labour market, there
was a need to investigate model-based estimation procedures to obtain
unemployment rate single-month estimates. We present structural time series
models developed to produce model-based single month estimates at national
level as well as small area (state-level) estimates at a higher frequency
than those currently being published. Using the state-space framework, the
models account for the autocorrelation due to sample overlap and the
increased dynamics in the labour force series in 2020. In addition,
bivariate models that combine claimant count and survey data are
investigated. The models not only yield estimates with better precision
than direct estimates, since the latter were affected by a rise in
non-response, but they can deliver reliable state-level official statistics
at a monthly frequency that are presently required. The new improved
model-based estimates were proposed as experimental statistics for the
Brazilian national statistical office (IBGE).
(joint work with Caio Golçalves (FJP and Ence/IBGE))

*Transmissão:* ao vivo pelo canal do Youtube (www.youtube.com/EstatísticaUFF
<http://www.youtube.com/Estat%C3%ADsticaUFF>). O seminário também será
transmitido da sala do LES (IME, sala 202, bloco H).

Todos são muito bem-vindos!

Att,

Patrícia Lusié
Professora Adjunta e Chefe do Departamento de Estatística
Instituto de Matemática e Estatística - UFF
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