[ABE-L] Seminários PIPGEs UFSCar/USP

[Michel H. Montoril]

Caros,

Gostaríamos de convidar a todos para o próximo seminário conjunto
UFSCar/ICMC-USP, que ocorrerá no dia *13/04*, *às 14h*. Seguem informações
abaixo.

Sintam-se à vontade para divulgar (arquivo em anexo) entre eventuais
interessados.

Saudações,
Michel

*Scheduled for:*
May 13, 2022, at 2:00 pm
(GMT-03:00) Brasilia Standard Time - Sao Paulo

*Video call link HERE <https://meet.google.com/fts-eoeu-jgx>.*

*Speaker:*
Marinho G. Andrade (ICMC-USP)

*Title:*
A Bayesian Approach with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to Zero-Modified Power
Series Model for Count Data Time Series

*Abstract:*
The paper aims to develop Zero-Modified (e.g., Inflated or Zero Deflated)
models for time series with discrete data. The models introduced in this
paper is an extension of Zero-Modified models of the Power Series family.
The main advantage of the proposed model is the suitability of these models
to fit time series data with both characteristics (zero-inflation and
zero-deflation) present in the same time series. Inference methods based on
the Bayesian approach, together with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC)
techniques were considered. The paper also provides a relevant application
for a real problem by modeling and forecast the series of notifications of
the number of deaths from Influenza in the city of São Paulo, Brazil.

*Bio:*
Prof. Marinho G. Andrade graduated in Electrical Engineering from the
Federal University of Pernambuco (1981). Master in Electrical Engineering
from the State University of Campinas (1986). Ph.D. in Electrical
Engineering from the State University of Campinas (1994). Post-Doctorate at
the Department of Statistics of the Carlos III University of Madrid (2004).
Postdoctoral fellow at the Department of Statistics, University of
Connecticut, Storrs - CT/USA (Feb/2020-Feb/2021). He was head of the
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics-SME of the Institute of
Mathematical and Computer Sciences-ICMC-USP. Coordinator of the
Interinstitutional Postgraduate Program in Statistics -PIPGES USP-UFSCar.
He is currently an associate professor (free professor) at the University
of São Paulo. He is interested in Probability and Statistics, emphasizing
Time Series, working mainly on the following topics: Bayesian inference,
MCMC simulation, time series, and models for count data.

===============================
/* Michel H. Montoril,
 * Assistant Professor,
 * Department of Statistics,
 * Federal University of São Carlos,
 * São Carlos, SP, 13565-905, Brazil
 */
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