[ABE-L] Seminário PIPGEs com Rui Martins: 17/05 às 14hs no ICMC-USP

[Rafael Izbicki]

Caros,

Na sexta-feira, 17 de maio às 14:00h, teremos seminário do Programa
Interinstitucional de Pós-Graduação em Estatística (PIPGEs) da UFSCar-USP.

Nome: Rui Martins (FCUL, Portugal)

Título: An underrated prior distribution for proportions. The
Logistic–Normal for dynamical football predictions

Resumo: The result of a football match in terms of Home-Win, Draw or
Away-Win can be modelled by considering the observed outcome as a
realization of a Multinomial random variable with three mutually exclusive
events over a single trial. Most applications consider the Dirichlet
distribution to represent the prior uncertainty about the Multinomial’s
proportion
parameters, mainly because of conjugacy and the reduced number of
parameters. As alternative we propose to use the Logistic–Normal, a
multivariate prior distribution for proportions but to which little
attention has been paid. This approach was motivated by the question – Are
women’s and men’s football leagues equally predictable? The models
developed are
applied to the main Portuguese women’s and men’s football leagues over
seven full seasons, starting from 2016–2017 up to 2022–2023. The work also
provides estimates of latent team-specific strengths and address the
variability from season-to-season and round-to-round, along with insights
of each team’s home advantage. We compare competitiveness across the
leagues with adequate metrics.

Bio: Rui Martins is Auxiliary Professor at the Faculty of Sciences of the
University of Lisbon. He obtained his PhD degree in Probability and
Statistics in 2013 in the same university and is currently responsible for
the seminars in Probability and Statistics at Centre for Statistics and
Applications at the University of Lisbon (CEAUL). He has been enrolled in
several research projects mainly in the field of statistics and
epidemiology with emphasis on Bayesian methodology and Generalized Linear
Models. His published works approach problems about age estimation,
Bayesian inference, density estimation, kernel estimation, longitudinal
data, survival analysis, spatial analysis, missing data and copulas. He has
been teaching Linear Models, Epidemiology, Statistical Laboratory and
Statistics in the Science and Society.

Local: Sala 4-003 do ICMC-USP

Todos são bem vindos!

[image: image.png]


          Rafael

--
Rafael Izbicki
Assistant Professor | Vice Director of Graduate Studies
Department of Statistics
Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar)
www.rizbicki.ufscar.br
www.small.ufscar.br
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