[ABE-L] WTF ChatGPT!?

Sáb Fev 25 16:13:38 -03 2023

Prezados,

Essas discrepâncias ocorrem porque o ChatGPT não trabalha com fatos e sim
com probabilidades. Ele apresenta a sequência de palavras que ocorre com
maior probabilidade e que satisfaz alguns critérios. Por isso as
referências muitas vezes são todas "inventadas". Ele mistura autores e cria
titulos que teriam alta probabilidade de ocorrer em conjunto. Vale
mencionar que ele não faz nenhuma consulta a fontes internas ou externas, o
GPT se baseia apenas no modelo estimado cujos parâmetros estimados são
obtidos via maximização da verossimilhança (ou, de outra forma, minimização
da cross entropia).

Estou nesse exato momento rodando uma versão simplificada do GPT com apenas
10milhões de parâmetros no R (o GPT-3 tem 175 Bilhões de parâmetros). Isso
não seria possível se não fosse pelo nosso egresso do IME-USP Daniel Falbel
que mantém atualmente o pacote torch. Esse pacote é simplesmente fenomenal.

Bom fim de semana

Em sáb., 25 de fev. de 2023 15:38, Hedibert Lopes <hedibert em gmail.com>
escreveu:

> Desculpe-me Dani e Gauss, dois dos nossos mais proeminentes estatísticos e
> referências importantes para minha geração, mas não me contive em tentar
> "aprender" mais sobre vocês com esse novo "pacotinho" estatístico :)
>
>
>
> First try:
>
>
> Dani Gamerman is a Brazilian statistician and professor, born in 1960. He
> is known for his contributions to the fields of Bayesian statistics,
> computational statistics, and machine learning.
>
>
> Gamerman obtained his PhD in statistics from the University of Campinas
> (UNICAMP) in Brazil in 1991. He has since held academic positions at
> several institutions, including the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
> (UFRJ) and the University of São Paulo (USP) in Brazil, as well as visiting
> positions at universities in the United States, Canada, and Europe.
>
>
> Gamerman has made important contributions to Bayesian statistics,
> including the development of methods for Bayesian model selection, Bayesian
> variable selection, and Bayesian time series analysis. He has also worked
> on computational methods for Bayesian inference, such as Markov chain Monte
> Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and importance sampling techniques.
>
>
> Gamerman has published numerous research articles and co-authored several
> books, including "Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for
> Bayesian Inference" and "Dynamic Generalized Linear Models and Bayesian
> Forecasting". He has received several awards for his contributions to
> statistics, including the Brazilian National Order of Scientific Merit in
> 2006 and the Guy Medal in Bronze from the Royal Statistical Society in 2014.
>
>
>
>
> Second try:
>
>
> Dani Gamerman is a Brazilian statistician and professor, born on May 31,
> 1967. He is currently a professor of statistics at the Institute of
> Mathematics and Statistics of the University of São Paulo (IME-USP) in
> Brazil.
>
>
> Gamerman's research focuses on Bayesian statistics, with particular
> interests in computational methods for Bayesian inference, time series
> analysis, and spatial statistics. He has developed several influential
> methods and algorithms for Bayesian inference, including the Bayesian
> stochastic search variable selection algorithm and the Bayesian Additive
> Regression Trees (BART) model.
>
>
> Gamerman has authored numerous articles in top statistical journals and
> has received several awards for his contributions to the field of
> statistics. He is also a fellow of the Brazilian Academy of Sciences and an
> elected member of the International Statistical Institute. In addition to
> his research, Gamerman has been an active teacher and mentor, supervising
> numerous graduate students and postdoctoral researchers in statistics.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Third try:
>
> Dani Gamerman is a Brazilian statistician and professor, born on September
> 26, 1968. He is a professor of statistics at the Universidade Federal do
> Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Brazil, and is known for his contributions to the
> fields of Bayesian statistics, computational statistics, and machine
> learning.
>
>
> Gamerman has published numerous research articles and books on Bayesian
> statistics, including "Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for
> Bayesian Inference" and "Bayesian Data Analysis". His research has focused
> on developing and applying Bayesian methods to a wide range of problems,
> including finance, environmental science, and genetics.
>
>
> In addition to his research contributions, Gamerman has also been involved
> in the development of statistical software, including the WinBUGS software
> for Bayesian analysis and the BayesFusion software for graphical models.
>
>
> Overall, Gamerman is recognized as a leading expert in Bayesian statistics
> and has made significant contributions to the field through his research,
> teaching, and software development.
>
>
>
>
>
> First try:
>
> Gauss Moutinho Cordeiro is a Brazilian statistician and professor, born on
> August 5, 1965. He is a professor of statistics at the Universidade Federal
> de Pernambuco (UFPE), Brazil, and is known for his contributions to the
> fields of spatial statistics, extreme value theory, and time series
> analysis.
>
>
> Cordeiro has published numerous research articles and books on statistics,
> including "Extreme Value Theory and Applications: Models, Methods, and Case
> Studies" and "Generalized T-X Family of Distributions: Theory and
> Applications". His research has focused on developing statistical models
> and methods to analyze data from a wide range of applications, including
> environmental science, engineering, and finance.
>
>
> Cordeiro has also been involved in the development of statistical
> software, including the EVIEWS software for time series analysis and the R
> package "extRemes" for extreme value analysis.
>
>
> Overall, Cordeiro is recognized as a leading expert in statistical theory
> and methodology, and has made significant contributions to the field
> through his research, teaching, and software development.
>
>
>
>
> Second try:
>
>
> Gauss M. Cordeiro is a Brazilian statistician and professor, born on
> December 3, 1977. He is a professor of statistics at the Federal University
> of Alagoas, Brazil, and is known for his contributions to the fields of
> Bayesian statistics, spatial statistics, and computational statistics.
>
>
> Cordeiro has published numerous research articles and books on Bayesian
> statistics, including "Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Low-Level
> Vision" and "Bayesian Model Averaging: A Systematic Approach to Bayesian
> Model Selection and Averaging". His research has focused on developing and
> applying Bayesian methods to a wide range of problems, including image
> analysis, environmental modeling, and geostatistics.
>
>
> In addition to his research contributions, Cordeiro has also been involved
> in the development of statistical software, including the R packages
> BayesSUR and BayesX.
>
>
> Overall, Cordeiro is recognized as a leading expert in Bayesian statistics
> and has made significant contributions to the field through his research,
> teaching, and software development.
>
>
>
> Third try:
>
> Gauss M. Cordeiro is a Brazilian statistician and professor, born on
> December 31, 1973. He is currently a professor of statistics at the
> Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Brazil, and is known for his
> contributions to the fields of Bayesian statistics, computational
> statistics, and statistical modeling.
>
>
> Cordeiro has published numerous research articles and books on Bayesian
> statistics and has made significant contributions to the development of
> Bayesian methodology for a wide range of problems, including reliability
> analysis, spatial modeling, and survival analysis. He has also developed
> new statistical models, such as the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders
> distribution, that have been widely used in applied research.
>
>
> In addition to his research contributions, Cordeiro has also been involved
> in the development of statistical software, including the R package "BAS",
> which provides tools for Bayesian model selection and averaging.
>
>
> Overall, Cordeiro is recognized as a leading expert in Bayesian statistics
> and has made significant contributions to the field through his research,
> teaching, and software development.
>
>
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