[ABE-L] Seminário - Modelos de Regressão e Aplicações. Uma contribuição estatística à filologia, Rafael Stern

[Silvia Ferrari]

*Seminário - Projeto Temático: Modelos de Regressão e Aplicações*



*Título: *Uma contribuição estatística à filologia



*Palestrante: *Rafael Bassi Stern, Doutor em Estatística, Carnegie Mellon
University



*Quando: *16 de outubro, sexta-feira, às 11h.



*Onde: *Auditório Jacy Monteiro, Bloco B, piso térreo - IME-USP



*Resumo*. Historical Linguistics studies language change over time. If a
group of languages derives from changes to a common ancestor language
(proto-language)
then they are said to be related. Whenever there exists a lack of written
records for an ancestor language, a relevant question in Historical
Linguistics is to determine whether two languages are related. However, it
is hard to find ancient relationships between languages.



Given the above challenge, I propose a new (probability) model for the
evolution of languages. A relevant innovation of this model is that it
captures the regularity of sound changes. I present a new algorithm used to
compute the probability of linguistic hypotheses regarding language
relationships and the occurrence of regular sound changes. This algorithm
is a new variant of Nested Sequential Monte Carlo. I prove the consistency
of the algorithm by showing that it is a case of Sequential Importance
Resampling. The algorithm is illustrated with tests on Indo-European
languages.
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