[ABE-L] Ciclo de Palestras PPG em Estatística IM-UFRJ (27/10 às 15:30 - atenção: excepcionalmente terça-feira)

[Kelly Cristina]

Caros redistas,

dando continuidade ao Ciclo de Palestras do Programa de Pós-Graduação
em Estatística do IM-UFRJ, *excepcionalmente* *na próxima 3a feira,
27/10/20, às 15:30*, teremos a palestra da professora do nosso programa:

*Thais Cristina de Oliveira da Fonseca (DME - UFRJ)*

*Título: * A Bayesian network-based approach for the Brazillian birth care
system

*Resumo: *This work investigates the causes of high rates (up to 88%) of
the cesarean section (CS) in hospitals in Brazil. Evidence indicates that
rates over 10-15% are correlated with maternal death, morbidity and near
death. The usual approach to relate factors and outcome in the birth
network is based on regression that do not allow for cause-effect
inference. I propose a novel approach based on Bayesian networks to capture
both non-linearities and complex cause-effect relations. The proposed
network integrate both the knowledge from experts to elicit the graph
structure and data of 12 hospitals (7200 women) to estimate model
parameters. The theoretical birth network, even though described in papers
in the area of public health, has not been mathematically constructed and
confirmed by data. In particular, a quality improvement intervention called
“Adequate Birth” (PPA) will be analyzed. The PPA was a pioneer project to
reshape the birth care system in Brazil. The main results presented are (i)
comprehensive guidelines to decrease CS rates depending on the estimated
Bayesian network, (ii) integration of factors in a full model which will be
tested using data obtained from the PPA intervention, (iii) query analysis
based on changes in the system, (iv) a tool for policymakers aiming to
optimize the cost-effectiveness of future interventions.

Joint work with Jacqueline T. Alves (Institute for Healthcare Improvement/
Africa Region), Maria do Carmo Leal (Fiocruz), Rosa Domingues (Fiocruz) and
Tatiana H. Leite (Fiocruz).
------

A palestra ocorrerá remotamente, via Google Meets. Segue o link para o
acesso a sala: meet.google.com/ruv-ruxx-ehg . A sala será aberta sempre 10
minutos antes do início de cada sessão.

Contamos com a presença de vocês.
Acompanhem a atualização da programação do nosso ciclo de palestras no
sitio  www.dme.ufrj.br opção Atividades subopção Ciclo de Palestras. Para
ver palestras anteriores, se inscreva no nosso canal Ciclo de
Palestras Estatística
UFRJ  <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoLTqHW20Ne1qFYL2xYJOcg/featured>!

Atenciosamente,

-- 
*Kelly C. M. Gonçalves*
*Professora Adjunta III*
*Departamento de Métodos Estatísticos*
*Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro*
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