[ABE-L] Seminário (online) de probabilidade - IM-UFRJ - 22 de novembro

[Maria Eulalia Vares]

*Probability Webinar -   IM-UFRJ *



Dear colleagues,

Our next online seminar will be held on Monday, *November 22, * from *3
p.m. to 4 p.m*. (Rio de Janeiro local time)

The Zoom link for the seminar is

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83698166702?pwd=ejFxYmh3dVk5b3J3SG0wMWxEVnVrUT09


Speaker:  *Antonio Galves  (IME-USP  and NeuroMat)*

Title:  *Fast Consensus and Metastability in a Highly Polarized Social
Network*

Abstract: Discrepancy between the results of electoral intentions carried
out a few days before the actual voting and the electoral poll results
during the first round of the 2018 presidential elections in Brazil was
striking. At the time, it was conjectured that this discrepancy was the
result of social-media campaigning days before the elections. The question
remains: is social-media campaigning enough to change the voting intention
of a significant portion of voters? To provide an answer to this question
was the initial motivation for this work.

The model we consider is a system with a large number of interacting marked
point processes with memory of variable length. Each point process
indicates the successive times in which a social actor expresses a
"favorable''  (+1) or "contrary'' (-1)  opinion on a certain subject.  The
social pressure on an actor determines the orientation and the rate at
which he expresses opinions. When an actor expresses their opinion, social
pressure on them is reset to 0, and simultaneously social pressure on the
other actors is changed by one unit in the direction of the opinion that
was just expressed.

The network has a polarization coefficient that indicates the tendency of
social actors to express an opinion in the same direction of the social
pressure exerted on them.

We show that when the polarization coefficient diverges consensus is
reached almost instantaneously. Moreover, in a highly polarized network,
consensus has a metastable behavior and changes its direction after a long
and unpredictable random time.

This is a joint work and a joint talk with Kádmo de Souza Laxa.

All the talks are held in English.

The videos of the online seminars are available:

2020 -  http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=2885

2021-1  - http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3027

For the second semester, a few days after each meeting the video should be
available at http://www.dme.ufrj.br/?page_id=3178

Thanks for circulating this information.

Sincerely,
Organizers: Guilherme Ost and Maria Eulalia Vares

<https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail>
Livre
de vírus. www.avast.com
<https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail>.
<#m_6207984649845206012_DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>
-------------- Pr�xima Parte ----------
Um anexo em HTML foi limpo...
URL: <http://lists.ime.usp.br/pipermail/abe/attachments/20211116/59ec2944/attachment.htm>