[ABE-L] Fwd: [Prof-IM] [IM] Ciclo de Palestras - PPGE-IM/UFRJ - 12 de NOVEMBRO

[Maria Eulalia Vares]

Prezados colegas,

A nossa próxima palestra ocorrerá na quarta-feira, 12 de NOVEMBRO, no
horário das 15h30 às 17h00, Local: Laboratório de Sistemas Estocásticos
(LSE), Sala I-044-B, Centro de Tecnologia - UFRJ.

*Palestrante: *Rosângela Loschi (UFMG)

*Título*: Temporal dependence in sequences of spatial random partitions
driven by spanning tree: An application to mosquito-borne diseases.

*Resumo*: Time-dependent regionalization or spatially restricted grouping
is an important field of research that has as the main goal to evaluate how
spatial clusters evolve over time. In this work, regionalization problem
will be treated probabilistically as a random partition of the map at each
time and the sequence of spatial partitions will be time-dependent,
allowing the temporal evolution of the clusters to be inferred. We assume a
product partition prior for the random partition at each time. The temporal
correlation between partitions is introduced through the temporal structure
assumed for prior cohesions. We employ random spanning trees to facilitate
the exploration of the partition search space and to guarantee spatially
constrained clustering. This work is motivated by a relevant applied
problem: identifying spatial and temporal patterns of mosquito-borne
diseases. Given the overdispersion present in this type of data, we
introduce a spatio-temporal Poisson mixture model in which mean and
dispersion parameters vary according to spatio-temporal covariates. The
proposed model is applied to analyze the number of dengue cases reported
weekly from 2018 to 2023 in the Southeast region of Brazil. We also
evaluate model performance using simulated data. The proposed model was
competitive for analyzing the temporal evolution of spatial clustering.
Joint work with: Jessica Pavani e Fernando A. Quintana.


Mais informações:
https://ppge.im.ufrj.br/ciclo-de-palestras-segundo-semestre-de-2025/

Organizadores: Maria Eulalia Vares e Widemberg S Nobre

Atenciosamente,





-- 
Maria Eulalia Vares
Professora Titular - Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ
Coordenadora do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística
https://ppge.im.ufrj.br/
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