[ABE-L] Ciclo de Palestras - PPGE-IM/UFRJ - 3 de SETEMBRO

[Maria Eulalia Vares]

Prezados colegas,


A nossa próxima palestra ocorrerá quarta-feira, 3 de SETEMBRO, no horário
das 15h30 às 17h00, Local: Laboratório de Sistemas Estocásticos (LSE), Sala
I-044-B, Centro de Tecnologia - UFRJ.

*Palestrante:* Leonardo Bastos (FIOCRUZ)

*Título*: Predicting dengue in Brazil: Opportunities and challenges from an
statistical perspective
*Resumo*:  Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health
concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian
Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the
preparedness and response to the disease. In this scope, predicting the
number of cases is essential for an appropriate decision making process in
order to reduce or avoid a higher burden caused by the disease. In this
seminar I will present the dengue and its characteristics and why it is not
an easy task to forecast the number of cases. I will present some short
term predictive models to “nowcast” the actual number of cases for
early-warning systems and also an one-year-ahead forecasting model to be
used either as a preview for the next year and/or probabilistic epidemic
bands for dengue cases in the country.

Mais informações:
https://ppge.im.ufrj.br/ciclo-de-palestras-segundo-semestre-de-2025/

Organizadores: Maria Eulalia Vares e Widemberg S Nobre

Atenciosamente,

-- 


-- 
Maria Eulalia Vares
Professora Titular - Instituto de Matemática - UFRJ
Coordenadora do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Estatística
https://ppge.im.ufrj.br/
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