[ABE-L] Ed George no Insper

[Hedibert Lopes]

Boa noite pessoal.



Desculpe-me incomoda-los novamente, mas gostaria de confirmar a palestra do
Professor visitante Ed George na 6ª-feira entre 13h30 e 15h na sala 410 do
4º andar do Insper.  O artigo (e material suplementar associado) segue em
anexo.



Abs,

Hedibert


On Tue, Feb 6, 2018 at 5:06 PM, Hedibert Lopes <hedibert em gmail.com> wrote:

> Boa tarde pessoal,
>
> Gostaria de convida-los a vir ao insper na sexta-feira para uma palestra
> de um tema muito interessante do Prof. Edward George da Wharton School of
> Business da University of Pennsylvania.
>
> Quem se interessar me avise para eu colocar o nome numa lista para acesso
> na portaria do prédio principal do Insper.
>
> Abraços,
> Hedibert
>
> Title: Mortality Rate Estimation and Standardization for Public Reporting: Medicare's
> Hospital Compare
>
> Abstract: Bayesian models are increasingly fit to large administrative
> data sets and then used to make individualized recommendations. In
> particular, Medicare’s Hospital Compare webpage provides information to
> patients about specific hospital mortality rates for a heart attack or
> Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI). Hospital Compare’s current
> recommendations are based on a random-effects logit model with a random
> hospital indicator and patient risk factors. Except for the largest
> hospitals, these individual recommendations or predictions are not
> checkable against data, because data from smaller hospitals are too limited
> to provide a meaningful check. Before individualized Bayesian
> recommendations, people derived general advice from empirical studies of
> many hospitals; e.g., prefer hospitals of type 1 to type 2 because the risk
> is lower at type 1 hospitals. Here we calibrate these Bayesian
> recommendation systems by checking, out of sample, whether their
> predictions aggregate to give correct general advice derived from another
> sample. This process of calibrating individualized predictions against
> general empirical advice leads to substantial revisions in the Hospital
> Compare model for AMI mortality. In order to make appropriately calibrated
> predictions, our revised models incorporate information about hospital
> volume, nursing staff, medical residents, and the hospital’s ability to
> perform cardiovascular procedures. For the ultimate purpose of comparisons,
> hospital mortality rates must be standardized to adjust for patient mix
> variation across hospitals. We find that indirect standardization, as
> currently used by Hospital Compare, fails to adequately control for
> differences in patient risk factors and systematically underestimates
> mortality rates at the low volume hospitals. To provide good control and
> correctly calibrated rates, we propose direct standardization
> instead.  (This is joint research with Veronika Rockova, Paul Rosenbaum,
> Ville Satopaa and Jeffrey Silber).
>
>


-- 
Hedibert Freitas Lopes, PhD
Professor of Statistics and Econometrics
INSPER - Institute of Education and Research
Rua Quatá, 300 - São Paulo, SP 04546-042 Brazil
Phone: +55 11 4504-2343
www.hedibert.org
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